Political Discussion

dbarila said:
I'd be much more confident if Biden was polling further ahead in PA. RCP polling average is actually closer than it was in 2016. That's what scares me most.
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Even if Biden was polling ahead further in PA, I'm absolutely certain there is going to be civil unrest, ballot tossing, court interference of some sort, and maybe even violence. Even then the worst may be yet to come in a lame duck session. Won't be able to sleep until Biden is sworn in in January.
 
ayayrawn said:
Gerry Ford fucked us all when he pardoned Nixon. I'd be shocked if a president of the United States is ever tried or convicted of anything. It certainly won't be Trump.
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The presidential pardon is only good for federal crimes, though. There's still a chance.
DownIsTheNewUp said:
A broken toaster could beat Trump at this point, and the comment was made prior to the pandemic or the BLM protests— the handling of which sealed Trump’s fate.
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Yes & no? Trump's polling has been remarkably consistent the entire time. His numbers have never really exceeded a very low ceiling, or dipped below a very high floor. Yes, people have gotten more passionate about Biden, or at least about electing the alternative to Trump, but Trump's own numbers have never really shifted all that much, no matter what he says or does. Although if we're listing proximate causes of a failed bid for reelection, prioritizing the confirmation of ACB over passing COVID relief should certainly rank up there, too.
 
Indymisanthrope said:
The presidential pardon is only good for federal crimes, though. There's still a chance.

Yes & no? Trump's polling has been remarkably consistent the entire time. His numbers have never really exceeded a very low ceiling, or dipped below a very high floor. Yes, people have gotten more passionate about Biden, or at least about electing the alternative to Trump, but Trump's own numbers have never really shifted all that much, no matter what he says or does. Although if we're listing proximate causes of a failed bid for reelection, prioritizing the confirmation of ACB over passing COVID relief should certainly rank up there, too.
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they haven’t shifted among his base aka Republicans or people who watch Fox News. You’d be hard pressed to get me to believe they haven’t impacted independents.

and either way, his handling of those issues (plus climate change) have absolutely made progressives and young people substantially more likely to swallow their vomit and vote Biden... which is why the youth vote is way, way up
 
dbarila said:
I'd be much more confident if Biden was polling further ahead in PA. RCP polling average is actually closer than it was in 2016. That's what scares me most.
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RCP includes a lot of junk polls like Rassmussen and Trafalgar that skews their data a bit. I think Biden is in much better shape in the upper Midwest than Clinton was in 2016 at this point.
 
ayayrawn said:
Gerry Ford fucked us all when he pardoned Nixon. I'd be shocked if a president of the United States is ever tried or convicted of anything. It certainly won't be Trump.
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Trump may well be investigated and charged on laws broken before his presidency. Not for the shit he pulled while in office; that’s something nobody will touch.

He can’t be pardoned for crimes committed as a citizen before 2016.
 
ayayrawn said:
Gerry Ford fucked us all when he pardoned Nixon. I'd be shocked if a president of the United States is ever tried or convicted of anything. It certainly won't be Trump.
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I can see the state of New York going after him for financial crimes and if he’s convicted on state charges only the governor could pardon him which wouldn’t happen.
 
wokeupnew said:
I'm surprised I was not quoted in this!

Depending on which projection you are looking at, Biden was closer~ to Trump in March maybe before the middle of the country was taking Covid serious. According to The Economist, they were projecting it as such President—Forecasting the US 2020 elections

It's interesting to see them be so certain with predicting results. So many pollsters/Election experts are so, so, so, so scared to predict that the election will go one way with certainty because there is a small chance they could be wrong (like in 2016).

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This Canadian election analysis site is pretty bullish about their predictions too in the same way as the above: US Presidency

Real Clear Politics and the like don't weigh polling at all depending on the bias. So their polling averages are all out of wack. There are loads of polls that show Trump tied or up in the GE polling which is insane. These are all not to be trusted, especially when the show the data. They'll have like 30% of Dems voting for Trump and 75% of the Independents which will not happen at all.

Plus early voting data is a huge indicator on how this election can go. I saw today that Texas is almost at 100% of ALL votes in 2016, election day has not even happened yet. If turnout is massive, and Biden/Dem ballots have returned with 5-10% leads or much, much more in states like Texas, NC, Georgia, PA. It's already game over.
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Follow up with The Economists Model. They have a >99% chance Biden will win the popular vote (and the aforementioned 96% for the electoral college).

also check out Cheetos face lol
 

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djdavedk said:
Trump may well be investigated and charged on laws broken before his presidency. Not for the shit he pulled while in office; that’s something nobody will touch.

He can’t be pardoned for crimes committed as a citizen before 2016.
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Trump is the worst poker player ever, he plays his hand out front for all to see, let's not forget this little comment........

"If I loose to Biden I might have to leave the country", he says with a nervous laugh :)
 
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