folsom_lives
Well-Known Member
Is that you, Mike Pence? Was the word "snuggled" too triggering for Mother?
Political Discussion
- Thread starter David A.
- Start date
TenderLovingKiller®
Well-Known Member
The numbers look good as of right now...
cookpolitical.com
Per Cook, if you just gave Biden all the states he is currently favored in and Trump somehow managed to win all the current toss ups, Biden already clears 270 in the EC. It is looking like they’ve reestablishe the Midwestern blue fire wall (at least for this election). Hopefully they can run up the score with TX, GA, FL, NC and/or OH.
Biden’s Path to 270 Widens, Trump’s Path Narrows, as Texas Moves to Toss Up
Less than a week out from Election Day and President Donald Trump is playing catch-up. In 2016, he won 30 states (and Maine's 2nd Congressional District) and their 306 electoral votes. Today, just 20 states, worth 125 electoral votes, are safely in his column. Former Vice President Joe Biden is...
TenderLovingKiller®
Well-Known Member
I think this is a fairly good summation of how most mainstream Republicans view systemic racism in the USA. They often confuse the terms “hard work” with “Luck”.
Indymisanthrope
Well-Known Member
wokeupnew
Well-Known Member
I'm surprised I was not quoted in this!
Depending on which projection you are looking at, Biden was closer~ to Trump in March maybe before the middle of the country was taking Covid serious. According to The Economist, they were projecting it as such President—Forecasting the US 2020 elections
It's interesting to see them be so certain with predicting results. So many pollsters/Election experts are so, so, so, so scared to predict that the election will go one way with certainty because there is a small chance they could be wrong (like in 2016).
This Canadian election analysis site is pretty bullish about their predictions too in the same way as the above: US Presidency
Real Clear Politics and the like don't weigh polling at all depending on the bias. So their polling averages are all out of wack. There are loads of polls that show Trump tied or up in the GE polling which is insane. These are all not to be trusted, especially when the show the data. They'll have like 30% of Dems voting for Trump and 75% of the Independents which will not happen at all.
Plus early voting data is a huge indicator on how this election can go. I saw today that Texas is almost at 100% of ALL votes in 2016, election day has not even happened yet. If turnout is massive, and Biden/Dem ballots have returned with 5-10% leads or much, much more in states like Texas, NC, Georgia, PA. It's already game over.
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Indymisanthrope
Well-Known Member
TBH I just did a quick search on "Biden lose" but I'm sure there were probably more to pull (me included maybe? I can't remember).
As I was typing this I just got a news alert that early voting has already reached 51% of the TOTAL 2016 voter turnout. And there's still another week to go. Obviously COVID is giving people a reason to try to spread out when they go to the polls, but no matter how you slice it that has to be a positive signal for turnout, right? At least they're not just staying home.
TenderLovingKiller®
Well-Known Member
Potentially. There is likely some cannibalization of voters that would normally vote on Election Day but the overall numbers are shaping up to quite large.
in Texas, we hit 87% of the total number of 2016 votes by Monday. unsure on what that will mean for the TOTAL total, but youth registrants are up 600% and there are at least 1.4 million first-time voters so far in the count.
trying to not be too hopeful because of, well, everything, but there are certainly cheerier signs than I've ever seen in this state before.
TenderLovingKiller®
Well-Known Member
The fact that the campaign is sending Harris to the Rio Grande Valley during this final stretch would indicate that the Biden folks think they have a decent shot at Texas too IMO.
BjorgenFjorgen
Well-Known Member
I hope so too! Though the part of my post about M4A is not likely to be wrong.
Indymisanthrope
Well-Known Member
I mean hey I'd *LOVE* for you to have to eat those words too, but you were right about that part.
I am glad (desperately hoping?) my company isn't a microcosm of the country. A coworker and I just did some estimating, and we came up with Trump - 35 votes and Biden - 5 in our company of 40 people. Most of these votes aren't via guess-work, because the Trumpers here are very vocal.
Indymisanthrope
Well-Known Member
It's going to take a long time for what Trump has awakened to be put to rest, but I wonder if eventually there's going to be a certain Nixon-like amnesia among Trump's supporters. Once some time passes and people have a chance to reflect on the damage he inflicted on the country, how many people will suddenly and forever be in denial that they ever voted for him to begin with?
Turbo
Well-Known Member
No worries. They're just part of the 41-44% support Trump has in Michigan. They have to come from somewhere.
I'm pretty sure there's a requirement that you have to be very vocal if you are a Trump supporter.
BjorgenFjorgen
Well-Known Member
Just as likely is the Bush-like image rehabilitation tour and people are going to fall for it.
dhodo
Well-Known Member
I don't know, I think a big part of the Bush "wasn't so bad" reevaluation relies heavily on how terrible Trump is. So I think for Trump to have a remotely similar phenomenon happen, it's going to have to get worse, which is certainly terrifying to think about.
folsom_lives
Well-Known Member
But he paints dogs now... so all the war crimes are forgiven...
Turbo
Well-Known Member
Because they're so boisterous, it makes me wonder if we're not going to see a sort of "shy Biden voter" scenario in some circles this time around. Almost the reverse from last time. You know, those people who just don't want to get into it with the vocal ones.