We have that in FL too. Problem is that the stores open for the elderly for the first hour, so guess what isn’t there for everyone else.....
Neverending Covid-19 Coronavirus
- Thread starter RenegadeMonster
- Start date
We have that in FL too. Problem is that the stores open for the elderly for the first hour, so guess what isn’t there for everyone else.....
Memo
Well-Known Member
Ma
Maybe now men will care more about female reproductive issues.
Djxfactor511
Well-Known Member
I went golfing today.
Paid online. Checked in outside by showing a confirmation. Used a scorecard app on my phone. Walked and carried my own clubs. It was nice.
EDIT: Oh, and the rule was - put it NEAR the hole, but not IN the hole, and if you do, DON'T TOUCH THE PIN.
Paid online. Checked in outside by showing a confirmation. Used a scorecard app on my phone. Walked and carried my own clubs. It was nice.
EDIT: Oh, and the rule was - put it NEAR the hole, but not IN the hole, and if you do, DON'T TOUCH THE PIN.
Indymisanthrope
Well-Known Member
Proposal that we don’t uncritically repeat The Daily Wire:
Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential...www.dailywire.com
Essentially 1/2 of people who test positive never show any symptoms. This drastically cuts back projects of worst case scenarios.
No, a COVID Scientist Didn’t Walk Back His Prediction | National Review
From the beginning he has said that lockdowns work.
www.nationalreview.com
The San Francisco subway is closing until the shelter in place order is lifted. The effected routes will be covered by above-ground transit services.
Turbo
Well-Known Member
Proposal that we don’t uncritically repeat The Daily Wire:
No, a COVID Scientist Didn’t Walk Back His Prediction | National Review
From the beginning he has said that lockdowns work.
I agree - you should always look at data critically. Models provide results using the best available information at the time. When new information becomes available, you need to run it again. It doesn't make the model wrong. It's especially important when you're looking at a pre-print manuscript like this was. The public and the media don't always realize that these things are a work in progress. The main conclusion that "social distancing" is the best approach should stand despite that change in input data.
In this case, the fact that 50% of the population is asymptomatic was not clear even a week ago. That affects things in two ways - it lowers the death rate but it also increases the Ro quite a bit. It will be interesting how that changes things. Still a lot of deaths in the "do nothing curve" I'm sure, but I suspect it's less and the curve should be tighter.
There is criticism that the effects of testing & tracing wasn't considered but that's irrelevant to the "do nothing" curve. It's just another simulation that must be run.
wokeupnew
Well-Known Member
Anyone in need of TP and don’t want to leave their homes check out this site which automatically shows several kinds toilet paper when it goes back in stock on Amazon. Amazon recently removed the “notify me” option, probably because people abused it for essential goods.
Was not able to get any from the very kind Instacart delivery person today. So I’m trying my luck here. Prices are normal and not gouged. I’ve got 5 left so ideally getting some sooner than later. I only plan on purchasing one pack if I can get any.
Was not able to get any from the very kind Instacart delivery person today. So I’m trying my luck here. Prices are normal and not gouged. I’ve got 5 left so ideally getting some sooner than later. I only plan on purchasing one pack if I can get any.
Toilet Paper & Flushable Wipes In Stock Tracker - NowInStock.net
Looking for Toilet Paper but having no luck? Maybe our FREE Toilet Paper In Stock Tracker can help!
www.nowinstock.net
DownIsTheNewUp
Well-Known Member
Christian pastor who thought COVID-19 is just ‘mass hysteria’ among the first from Virginia to die from virus
One of the first deaths of a Virginian from coronavirus was a 66-year-old Christian “musical evangelist” who fell ill while on a trip to New Orleans with his wife. As the Friendly Atheist’s Bo Gardiner points out, Landon Spradlin had previously shared opinions that the pandemic was the result of...
www.rawstory.com
PolitiFact - No, Russia didn’t release lions to enforce COVID-19 stay-at-home orders
Well, that’s one way to do it. Posts online claim that in an attempt to "ensure" people stay indoors during the COVID-19
www.politifact.com
wokeupnew
Well-Known Member
This works FYI! Just scored a 30 pack for $20. Doesn’t go in stock until the 29th but it’ll come in two days after that
For me it says everything is out of stock. The 2 that are listed as pre-order bring me to the amazon homepage and not the product page so yeah.
No luck with me. But at least I have 3 spare rolls still.
No luck with me. But at least I have 3 spare rolls still.
jaycee
Well-Known Member
In my particular modeling community we have a saying (maybe all modeling disciplines have it - i don't know)...
all models are wrong but some models are useful
why? because they're only as good as the data, assumptions, and conceptual models that fuel them
that doesn't mean they don't provide us with useful information... they're just not crystal balls or nostredamus as some people believe
Chucktshoes
Well-Known Member
jaycee
Well-Known Member
Coronavirus: Iceland’s mass testing finds half of carriers show no symptoms
As the coronavirus pandemic surges worldwide, each piece of data counts in the fight against the deadly pathogen.But significant findings about theenglish.alarabiya.net
it's kind-of strange this is getting publicity now... i'm pretty sure i heard this last weekend
wokeupnew
Well-Known Member
You just have to keep checking and checking and refreshing that page. Try all the links that say either Pre-Order or in stock. It updates every 5 minutes so check back often.
Turbo
Well-Known Member
There was the same ratio found when they tested everyone on the Diamond Princess too.
debianlinux
Well-Known Member
I model buildings. I won't say my models are never wrong but they are so fucking useful that if they were wrong it would cost 10's to 100's of thousands of dollars for the smallest mistake. I would concede that there is a level of detail we never try to approach with building models because the payoff for the effort does not exist (e.g.we model a dimensional window but not the composition and flashing system of said window). That said, as model authoring software increases in sophistication and the ability of computer maintenance and ROI analysis system grows, more and more detail is showing up in construction models as a single point of reference to feed those systems.
My models are no less models of the type you speak of. The current vernacular refers to them as digitial twins and we literally plan construction operations virtually before committing to again building the real thing in meat space. The difference I think is that the purpose, utility, and scope of my models are largely understood across the board for those who participate in it.
jaycee
Well-Known Member
I think the inputs to your models are more well-understood in that there is less variability in some, many?, of the factors. They're no less complicated but perhaps the factors are more static?
I'm not an epidemiologist so I can't speak to their models as an expert, but my assumption is that human behaviors / choices are more difficult to account for and there is a heavy reliance on past trends without fully understanding the human behaviors that may be driving them, even with large sample sizes.
As far as the natural sciences I'm more familiar with there are a number of phenomena that you just can't see with your own two eyes easily because they are too big or too small or happen so quickly or slowly that they make modeling results more variable and perhaps more dependent on the quality and quantity of the observations you do have...but they people who use them do understand.... the general public and too often the people responsible for making decisions don't because science literacy and education are poor, and technical people do a poor job of communicating it. It's pretty difficult to have a digital twin of something that is constantly changing with time.
