Movies

1917 will sweep technical awards and and probably win best director. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood will win best supporting actor, production design, original screenplay and picture. Dern will win supporting actress and Renee will win actress. Joker will get 2 for Joaquin and score (if it gets more than that we have an issue). The only categories that aren't really locked are animated film and adapted screenplay.
Wouldn't be mad if Parasite somehow swooped in and won director and picture. Too good for the academy tho, probably.
 
Wouldn't be mad if Parasite somehow swooped in and won director and picture. Too good for the academy tho, probably.
It may not matter this year, but historically, very few films that haven't had a best editing nomination have won best picture. Neither 1917 nor OuaTiH got one. Parasite did. So maybe!
 
I don’t know if this is a deliberate typo or not, but 1917 certainly is most picture.
In general, I go by the rule that the Academy doesn’t award Best, they award Most; this is especially apparent with the costume, editing, and special effects awards; a movie like Knives Out, where the costumes effectively (but not showily) reflect character doesn’t get recognized, but period pictures where everyone is in a full-on Costume get rewarded.

I haven’t seen 1917 yet, but it totally seems to be a Most Picture; the single-take approach is very much a bravura filmmaking move where the audience and the Academy is meant to marvel at the undertaking. I don’t mean to be too salty, but while a single-take shot can impress me (Children of Men, the priest scene in Hunger), I don’t appreciate it for its own sake. I saw a side-by-side video of how they did the big running shot (the one from the trailer where he’s running perpendicular to all the soldiers rushing out of the trench), and I get the impression we’re supposed to be impressed by what it took to make the movie more than what the movie makes us feel.

This is also why the Gerwig snub, while atrocious, isn’t surprising: the direction on Little Women is not Most. When you consider how many characters and storylines she’s juggling, I’d say the movie is a feat of directing that isn’t at all showy. So that’s why I think Mendes is also a shoo-in, as coordinating such a difficult shoot as 1917 is the Most directing.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood would be my other guess for Best Picture, as the Academy loves movies that prop up the importance of movies and Hollywood (see also: Argo and The Artist).
 
This is the day every year where I drive myself crazy focusing on what the Academy got wrong, but I’m extremely happy about Florence Pugh’ nom... and the other five Little Women noms (Saoirse Ronan’s fourth nomination!). and Parasite’s six nominations! and Rian Johnson’s writing nod! and the weird surprise of Klaus being nominated for animated feature.
 
This is the day every year where I drive myself crazy focusing on what the Academy got wrong, but I’m extremely happy about Florence Pugh’ nom... and the other five Little Women noms (Saoirse Ronan’s fourth nomination!). and Parasite’s six nominations! and Rian Johnson’s writing nod! and the weird surprise of Klaus being nominated for animated feature.

I've heard a lot of people complain about the decision to let Pugh play both young and old Amy, but I thought she rocked it.
 
I’ve been seeing that too, which is wild and mind-boggling; actors have been playing against their age for…ages. The example I keep thinking of is that a in It’s a Wonderful Life, 38 year-old Jimmy Stewart plays George Bailey from age 21 to age 38. I’m sure there are even more egregious examples than George Bailey, but it’s weird that a 24 year-old playing someone at 13 and 20 is so off-putting for folks. If anything, the performance played for me a lot better the second time; she plays young Amy with the spontaneity and energy of an early teen.
 
This is one I definitely need to rewatch. I saw it once in theaters and thought it was okay but that's about it. I rarely watch movies at home but I've been wanting to revisit it since we live in Sacramento now.

boy, it clicked with me, and I love it a little more each time I see it. It’s a movie where every minor character has inner life and humanity, and not a single scene is wasted.
 
I CALL FOR JUSTICE FOR GRETA GERWIG!
How the fuck is she not recognized but Todd Phillips is? And all those noms for Joker...ridiculous. I’ve finally seen it and while I don’t think it’s awful or dangerous or whatever, it’s a pretty dumb movie with some flawed writing and pretty good acting.

And yet seeing Parasite, Marriage Story, and Jojo Rabbit nominated for Best Picture makes me happy though none will win. Parasite is there as a nod to its impact just like how Get Out was, but it will likely get Foreign Film. Once again children actors are also not recognized, like the three phenomenal ones in Jojo Rabbit.

Predictions: Little Women gets Best Picture, Parasite Best Foreign, Acting noms and directing will all go to The Irishman, though I’d love Adam Driver to get Actor.

now my personal snubs...The Lighthouse deserves so so so so much more. Also Florence Pugh in Midsommar was my favorite performance of the year.
 
Now I feel the need to rent Joker, despite having 0 interest in the film just to get in on the drama....
It’s not that interesting in relation to the controversy. It’s a movie that has been done before but this time it’s a property you recognize and it’s not as smart. It’s “about mental illness” but seems to misunderstand the issues and walks a kinda tricky line between playing it dumb and sending a completely backwards message.
 
It’s not that interesting in relation to the controversy. It’s a movie that has been done before but this time it’s a property you recognize and it’s not as smart. It’s “about mental illness” but seems to misunderstand the issues and walks a kinda tricky line between playing it dumb and sending a completely backwards message.
Funny thing about Joker is I like it a bit more today after discussing it with a friend who also just recently saw it. That being said, no way does it deserve a Best Picture nomination over the Farewell. And Phillips over Gerwig is a joke.

Now is probably a good time to reiterate that the Academy is 68% male and 84% white. Just let that sink in.
 
It’s not that interesting in relation to the controversy. It’s a movie that has been done before but this time it’s a property you recognize and it’s not as smart. It’s “about mental illness” but seems to misunderstand the issues and walks a kinda tricky line between playing it dumb and sending a completely backwards message.

That's very close to what one of my friends told me about the film. I do plan on seeing it now just out of morbid curiosity, but I won't expect much, good or bad. I know a lot of the buzz surrounding the film seemed to focus on the relation to Taxi Driver, which is what interests me the least. In general the big 70s revival happening right now is a big mixed bag, but I though Schrader's First Reformed has been bar none the best of the batch. I am curious to see what this film does with the subject that's caused so much interest, but my sneaking cynicism is that this is just a gateway film for a lot of folks that will quickly outgrow it.
 
It's a fairly entertaining, kinda bad movie that looks really good and has a compelling central performance.
Yeah pretty much. Not awful, not amazing. But the people claiming it’s some kind of masterpiece need to watch more movies. Ditto to the people who think this is some sort of dangerous, violence-influencing film.

is it possible some crazy incel sees themselves in the film and then uses that to hurt people? Sure it’s possible. Is it the film’s fault? No.
 
Now is probably a good time to reiterate that the Academy is 68% male and 84% white. Just let that sink in.

Besides the pathetic lack of diversity here, what kind of self-centered boring people are they? The constant gravitation towards white cis-male stories is preventable now even while it takes the years for the demographics of the ranks to be corrected. People should stop treating cinema as an opportunity for male gazing, and more as Eberts "empathy machine." For me there's nothing more interesting than exploring someone else's POV, but I guess most Academy members would rather see theirs reinforced.
 
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