Political Discussion

Btsvinylfarm said:
Trump had more conviction votes than any President in history
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This statement hides a lot. Nixon never went to trial. Clinton was well, not a matter of international affairs, and Andrew Johnson happened around the Civil War, hardly analogous to present day politics. He also narrowly failed to get a 2/3 majority to remove him. what is that in absolute value in Civil War era senate seats versus proportional measurement?
 
The cold hard truth related to Sanders--

1) White working class voters who supported him in 2016 before turning to Trump out of anti-establishment desperation are largely sticking with Trump

2) Upper middle class suburbanites have had their stocks recover and don't want to rattle anything. They are completely detached from the economic realities facing people under 40.

3) A lot of Clinton supporters blamed him and his supporters for Trump wining in 2016. And the media didn't help matters.

4) Data shows that 75% of voters are only concerned with beating Trump. Not much else. The remaining 25% is mostly made up of people my age.

5) Warren knee-capped Sanders with her accusation that he said a woman can’t win. It caused her base to dig in and made it unlikely suburbanite women would ever get behind hm. Yes, she played spoiler in as many as 4 states last night, and prevented a positive narrative with Bloomberg droppping out.... but the beginning of the end were those comments.

6) MOST importantly, the under 38 (millennial cut-off) crowd is apathetic as fuck after 2016 (+ Obama for those who were paying attention). We did not turn up at the rates needed.

My past two days were spent at local community colleges. I got a lot of "it's rigged anyways" or "they'll never let him win" comments.Those sort of remarks were non-existent in 2016. And I fully admit that I didn't spend nearly as much time canvassing for Sanders this go-round specifically because of the sense that the DNC would prevent him at all costs anyways.

I'll go to my grave believing Sanders would have beaten Trump in 2016. Now we have to hope that Biden (whose brain sometimes appear to have been replaced with mashed potatoes and who is directly responsible for our generation's problems) can inspire the turnout required to beat Trump.

I have A LOT of resentments towards Boomers, the majority of whom (let's be clear, there are *some* good ones) seem incapable of thinking of anybody other than themselves or their kin. But if our generation had turned out at a reasonable rate, it wouldn't have mattered regardless of Warren's decision to stay in the race.
 
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Btsvinylfarm said:
I'm curious your thoughts on the data I shared - both the RCP aggregates in the General for Sanders/Biden, as well as the low youth turnout? Does that not concern you if the goal is to win in November and remove the incumbent? It scares the shit out of me.
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Of course it concerns me. I think a lot of the below from @wokeupnew is true. In the dramatic, made-for-TV death spiral of American politics since 2016, I think it's true that a lot of people (especially older voters) are yearning for "the Obama years" because a lot of things seemed normal and fine for them then. Most 45+ voters will always prefer the candidate who isn't made out to be a bogeyman who's going to raise their taxes, even if Biden is name recognition. You can talk about low youth turnout but even if it were higher, there are a lot more people in the 45-whatever bracket than there are in the 18-45 bracket. He has little to no policy and he has a history of being on the opposite side of progressive causes. The problem is that all of the issues that caused Trump and the last several years existed during the Obama years and won't go away with a Biden nomination or presidency. Obama-to-Trump voters won't come back for Biden; he's not angry, and we should all be very angry! Not that I think Dems should be trying to recruit them, necessarily, but if they don't identify some of the fundamental issues behind what ails America, and run someone who understands those issues, they're going to get crushed! What concerns me most of all is that in terms of issues like climate change, we can't wait four or eight more years to act. But hey, Biden loves trains; maybe he'll get high-speed continental rail built.

wokeupnew said:
Also most people are not engaged with politics and are low information voters. The average person is casually informed by cable and local news about elections and politics. People know of Biden because of Obama. Your average voter may have only heard Bernie being associated with Socialism and Castro so they’ll choose the opposite in Trump. So I think that’s why Biden won in states where he barely campaigned. He has great name recognition and Bernie does not. We need someone who people know and generally liked when they were VP. Bernie is a big ask of the average voter.
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Dtknuckles said:
I think strong is an overstatement. A slim majority 54% disagreed with the result.

fivethirtyeight.com

Fewer Americans Think Impeachment Will Hurt Trump’s Reelection Chances

The impeachment trial is over. And with the exception of Republican Sen. Mitt Romney, who voted to convict President Trump on one charge, the president has been…
fivethirtyeight.com fivethirtyeight.com
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I think you're vastly underestimating the implications that 54% of the American public disagreed with letting the President keep his job.

Put it into electoral context. If 54% of voters voted against Trump in November (to remove him), the Democratic challenge would be earning the largest share of the popular vote since 1984 (even Obama in '08 only got 52.9%).

Now obviously that isn't how it will shake out, and popular vote doesn't matter (though at 54%, you probably win the EC anyways), but it's still hugely significant.
 
Btsvinylfarm said:
I think you're vastly underestimating the implications that 54% of the American public disagreed with letting the President keep his job.

Put it into electoral context. If 54% of voters voted against Trump in November (to remove him), the Democratic challenge would be earning the largest share of the popular vote since 1984 (even Obama in '08 only got 52.9%).

Now obviously that isn't how it will shake out, and popular vote doesn't matter (though at 54%, you probably win the EC anyways), but it's still hugely significant.
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Significant in absolute measurement, but not proportional. Proportional changes the balance of power. It's only significant if it changes the balance of power.
 
RenegadeMonster said:
There is also the thing where most republicans would think trump should be removed from office would still vote for him, because Trump is still better than any democrat. Trump is the lesser evil to them.
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And then, trust me I've tried, they level the same accusation at you, that you're not meeting them halfway and would never vote for a Republican, when you try and tell them the scale on which Trump and his cadre sucks.

EDIT: Oh, and all the people who voted to acquit on the articles of impeachment because they feared getting chewed up by Fox n' Friends, and, heaven forbid, lose re-election.

What we need is, all of us, is to start loving the people around us, be prepared to be wrong and still keep up the good fight, but how the fuck do you make that happen?
 
Btsvinylfarm said:
One Michelle Obama, please.
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No thanks. She has no interest in holding elected office, and has already given enough service & years in her husband's terms (and endured more than her fair share of abuse during them). And we need to keep pushing back on the idea of always returning to the same families to save us.
DownIsTheNewUp said:
My past two days were spent at local community colleges. I got a lot of "it's rigged anyways" or "they'll never let him win" comments.Those sort of remarks were non-existent in 2016.
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It's almost like Bernie's people spent the last 4 years nursing those grievances and making everyone distrust the system that he said couldn't be trusted. It's one of the fundamental weaknesses of his whole platform: an independent who runs as a Democrat to give control of the Democratic party to non-Democrats and then blows up when the Democrats don't want that.
 
Indymisanthrope said:
No thanks. She has no interest in holding elected office, and has already given enough service & years in her husband's terms (and endured more than her fair share of abuse during them). And we need to keep pushing back on the idea of always returning to the same families to save us.

It's almost like Bernie's people spent the last 4 years nursing those grievances and making everyone distrust the system that he said couldn't be trusted. It's one of the fundamental weaknesses of his whole platform: an independent who runs as a Democrat to give control of the Democratic party to non-Democrats and then blows up when the Democrats don't want that.
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The two-party system sure is a structural cancer, that's for sure.
 
Indymisanthrope said:
It's almost like Bernie's people spent the last 4 years nursing those grievances and making everyone distrust the system that he said couldn't be trusted. It's one of the fundamental weaknesses of his whole platform: an independent who runs as a Democrat to give control of the Democratic party to non-Democrats and then blows up when the Democrats don't want that.
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7) ?

The Lavar Ball syndrome is strong

 
Indymisanthrope said:
It's almost like Bernie's people spent the last 4 years nursing those grievances and making everyone distrust the system that he said couldn't be trusted. It's one of the fundamental weaknesses of his whole platform: an independent who runs as a Democrat to give control of the Democratic party to non-Democrats and then blows up when the Democrats don't want that.
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I also think Bernie's recent comments about the Democratic Establishment is not ready for them may have backfired. He's actively campaigning as a Democrat. How do you expect the Democrats to respond to that? I think it also added to his poor performance and might have been his "Deplorables" comment.


I think the VP pick will be huge. Biden, if he wins, will not likely run for a second term so whoever is chosen is likely going to be the next President.
 
Most of this is anecdotal, so do what you will with it.

We're the typical Northern Virginia family. There's plenty of privilege: middle class, educated, white. We're all Dems (except for that great aunt and her offspring down in Roanoke who all love Trump and well, yeah, that's made for some fun family gatherings). We all follow politics because we are in the middle of it all. All this to say: some of my family still thinks socialism = communism. They still think Biden is the best candidate (because the press tells them this). They still think Elizabeth is unelectable (because the press tells them this). Etc etc.

People at work: never even heard of Stacey Abrams, Amy Klobachar, etc., didn't know Pete was gay, Michelle Obama is definitely a man, etc. (I am honestly constantly surprised by the things people at work DON'T know - like today, a woman said, "There are types of apples other than red and green? I didn't know that.")

My point: I think we are a pretty informed group here. I also think we are the exception. Most people still get their news from reading headlines. Or listening to 5 second blurbs on the radio in between Lady Gaga's newest and the traffic report. I don't know how to combat that. But if that is what we're working with, then yes, Biden is who we're gonna get. And maybe the DNC knows that? Maybe they know that most of the country just looks for name recognition?

Sigh. I don't get to vote until April 28. I really really really wanted to vote for Elizabeth. I don't think I'll get the chance. I have maintained this since election night, 2016 - I will vote for whomever the Dems nominate. Trump is horrible and I fear for my personal safety if he is re-elected. To be clear: I fear a lot of things if he is re-elected but I'm really sick of being the subject of this unearthed hatred these last 4 years. As are most every minority group.

Please vote. Even if it isn't the candidate you wanted to win, please vote. There is too much at stake to opt out. And the in-fighting isn't helping. :(
 
Slight change of topic: looking forward, what is going to happen with the party conventions? Assuming that coronavirus concerns are ongoing this summer, all of the remaining candidates in the race fit the high-risk profile on the basis of age alone.

But just in general, what's the wisdom around thousands of people from all around the country converging in one city and shaking each other's sweaty hands? Is this going to be a problem? And if it is, what do we do about it? We can cancel something like SXSW without damaging the country's ability to function. But how do you select your party's nominee without all of those people getting together face to face?

Edit: Despite my questions leading to sort of a worst-case scenario, I'm not trying to be alarmist about it, just asking whether it's a sensible thing that we need to consider.
 
Indymisanthrope said:
Slight change of topic: looking forward, what is going to happen with the party conventions? Assuming that coronavirus concerns are ongoing this summer, all of the remaining candidates in the race fit the high-risk profile on the basis of age alone.

But just in general, what's the wisdom around thousands of people from all around the country converging in one city and shaking each other's sweaty hands? Is this going to be a problem? And if it is, what do we do about it? We can cancel something like SXSW without damaging the country's ability to function. But how do you select your party's nominee without all of those people getting together face to face?

Edit: Despite my questions leading to sort of a worst-case scenario, I'm not trying to be alarmist about it, just asking whether it's a sensible thing that we need to consider.
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My mom mentioned SXSW being canceled. My response was: How? Sure, the official sponsors can pull the plug. But most of the shows are unofficial. I mean, I saw shows in parking lots, garages, back yards, a thrift shop, a book store, bars, fields, etc. I just don't see being able to cancel ALL of those unofficial shows.

Also, yeah, the convention is gonna be interesting. I have to wonder again - is there a better way of doing things?
 
Teeeee said:
We're the typical Northern Virginia family. There's plenty of privilege: middle class, educated, white. We're all Dems (except for that great aunt and her offspring down in Roanoke who all love Trump and well, yeah, that's made for some fun family gatherings). We all follow politics because we are in the middle of it all. All this to say: some of my family still thinks socialism = communism. They still think Biden is the best candidate (because the press tells them this). They still think Elizabeth is unelectable (because the press tells them this). Etc etc.
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When it comes to my family. My father, uncles, basically any male who is a baby boomer or older are Trump supporters. All the women and everyone of my generation are Bernie supporters. With the exception of the part of the family who moved to North Carolina 15 years ago and work in the banking industry. They are hard core Trump Supporters.

What really get's me is the how these people refer to Trump at family get togethers.

For example, if Trump's name comes up my uncle will say "that's my boy!" or "yeah buddy!" Any political discussion that comes up it's "Trump will take care of it"

It's like Trump's part of the "boys club". I have never heard this with any president before.

Also, not sure what to make of the "Trump will take care of it" comments. Because I feel like by taking care of it it will hurt their self interests.
 
Teeeee said:
My mom mentioned SXSW being canceled. My response was: How? Sure, the official sponsors can pull the plug. But most of the shows are unofficial. I mean, I saw shows in parking lots, garages, back yards, a thrift shop, a book store, bars, fields, etc. I just don't see being able to cancel ALL of those unofficial shows.
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Yeah true. It was the first thing that came to mind because I saw the news that FB had pulled out of it. I guess you can't, in one blanket move, cancel all of the events, but if you cancel most of the 'official' stuff and remove the biggest crowd-draws, it ends up being less attractive to all attendees, I'd think.

But some of the other big fests this summer? I mean, hygiene at those is dicey in the best of times. I saw that Bonnaroo has sold out for this year; what preventive measures can a massive gathering like that take if we're still in containment mode at that point?
 
RenegadeMonster said:
When it comes to my family. My father, uncles, basically any male who is a baby boomer or older are Trump supporters. All the women and everyone of my generation are Bernie supporters. With the exception of the part of the family who moved to North Carolina 15 years ago and work in the banking industry. They are hard core Trump Supporters.

What really get's me is the how these people refer to Trump at family get togethers.

For example, if Trump's name comes up my uncle will say "that's my boy!" or "yeah buddy!" Any political discussion that comes up it's "Trump will take care of it"

It's like Trump's part of the "boys club". I have never heard this with any president before.

Also, not sure what to make of the "Trump will take care of it" comments. Because I feel like by taking care of it it will hurt their self interests.
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Misogyny is ever present on both sides of the aisle and as far right and left as you want to go.

Trumps dog whistling has not only given permission to supremacists and racists of every ilk but every insecure male that finds security and validation in viewing themselves as the superior gender.

People always have voted for what they believe is in their self interest. I qualified it that way because supporting systems that actually harm you in the end isn't in people's self interest but "long-term" thinking is hard for most people, especially people that are worried about their immediate future or protecting their tailwind.
 
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