Neverending Covid-19 Coronavirus

[Turbo]

Latest reports are saying that the vaccine may not be widely available to the general public until late summer of 2021 or later now. The first have of the year will be restricted access to those deemed to be at a higher risk.

Wow, that's late. We're talking about having the population vaccinated by September.

We're ready to start next Monday if Health Canada approves. Quebec is starting with only 2000 doses (of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine), but that should cover a good chunk of people working in COVID units and start hitting people working in assisted care facilities. Vaccine doses should keep rolling in from then too. We already have the capacity to vaccinate 250,000 people a week for flu. This will be less than that because of the required freezers, but our population is 8 million, so it could be quick if the doses keep coming in from the different manufacturers.

 

[nolalady]

Hey @nolalady public health wonder woman does this check out? This was my response to people arguing about why they are closing done restaurants in LA.


“xxx the 3% is only part of the statistical story. What they are lookat is risk. How risky is it to be in a restaurant. What they want to know is how likely are you going to spread the virus by participating in a certain area of the economy. It’s a ratio of cases/economic interactions.

It maybe only responsible for 3% of the cases because the amount of economic interactions are very low. While people go to the grocery store a lot so there are more cases, but when compare to the amount of trips to the store and the spread it is low risk.

There is a total of 100 cases 3 are from restaurant interactions while 10 are from grocery store interactions.

Cases from restaurants/Trips to restaurants =3/10=30% chance of contracting Covid

Cases from groceries/trips to grocery=10/100=10% chance of contracting Covid

XXX 1.3% is from Media. The would be about 1.3 cases per 100 cases. However let’s say they are from 50 shoots.

1.3/50=3% chance you will contract Covid from working on a shoot.”

Yes, for the most part this is why they are targeting restaurants. The problem with restaurants is that you have to remove your facemask when you eat. Where this all gets even more problematic is when you add in alcohol consumption and bigger crowds due to holiday activities.

Any place that has recycled air is going to be a problem (AC/HVAC) which is any where inside. What ups your risk is if you and/or people around you aren't wearing masks and how long y'all all hang out--I've been to the grocery and for the most part, everyone is masked whereas in a restaurant most of the people there are unmasked because they are eating. If you add in alcohol, you have even more problems with social distancing and there have been numerous cases linked to super spreader events from bars. Here's a pretty good article:

Although the study looked at a variety of businesses, the authors claim that restaurants in particular are “among the riskiest points of interest to reopen at normal capacities” because they tend to be in busier metro areas and attract larger crowds of people:

“On average, restaurants tend to have more people per sqare ft and relatively long dwell times,” study author and Stanford University PhD candidate Serina Yongchen Chang told Nation’s Restaurant News. “There are many ways to reopen restaurants in less risky ways: for example, with reduced maximum occupancy caps, enforcing masks, spreading out diners, etc.”

Indoor dining major cause of COVID-19 ‘superspreader’ events, Stanford-led study suggests

The restaurant industry responds to the study's claims, which also highly recommend 20-25% indoor dining capacity restrictions

www.nrn.com

As for groceries, while there is still a risk, people have to be able to go procure food somewhere. Besides it being a lower risk activity, it's also necessary whereas hanging out in a restaurant is not.

Officials are shutting down restaurant eating because 1.)it's already proven to put a lot of people at risk even with dining capacities in many large cities being reduced to 50% because you can't wear a mask while eating and 2.)it's unnecessary--restaurants are not the only place where one can procure food and if you want that restaurant's food, you can order take out. Right now, restaurants around me were capped at 50% capacity and we are seeing restaurants being linked with "super spreader" events even at reduced capacity. Could you imagine how bad these super spreader events would be without reduced capacity? Any place that people sit and congregate inside (recycled air) for the expressed purpose of socialization is going to be a problem in the age of covid.

As for your risk and calculations, the first rule of population statistics is that you cannot use population statistics to infer the outcome of a single person in that population. You can't necessarily say that the prevalence of a disease in a community equals the probability that a person from that community will newly contract a disease. The prevalence rates you stated above are communal and not meant for individual statistical outcome calculations so the last part about risk isn't really correct. But you are thinking about it correctly in that restaurants just started opening back up, so less people are going, and yet it's leading to 3% of all cases. Whereas grocery stores have been open this whole time and we aren't seeing huge spikes or super spreader events connected to any grocery stores.

 

[RenegadeMonster]

How 700 Epidemiologists Are Living Now, and What They Think Is Next

They are going to the grocery store again, but don’t see vaccines making life normal right away.

www.nytimes.com

 

[RenegadeMonster]

Sighs, I hate how the profit generating systems are capitalizing off of COVID.

My doctors office does not collect the copay at visits right now because of COVID. They send a bill in the mail for your copay.

However, to pay that bill there is a $5 convenience fee. It's all contactless because of covid, so no option to mail in a check. Just pay online with credit/debit.

So my $35 Co-pay is now $40.

 

[Djxfactor511]

My dad tested positive this morning. He thought he had an ear infection.

My mom has cold symptoms and is still waiting on her results, but obviously likely positive as well.

My uncle tested positive last week. My dad and uncle work together.

Hoping the severity of their symptoms stays like this.

Stay safe out there y'all.

And now my wife's back in quarantine after being exposed by one of her kids at school again.

 

[LeSamourai]

My sister's a respiratory therapist at a Utah hospital (so she's the one actually hooking people up on ventilators and such), and now, on top of the crazy hours and dying patients and constant risk, she told me that the hospital needed to hire a bunch of extra security because people are sneaking in to try to film and "prove" that it's all a hoax and the ICU is really empty.

 

[RenegadeMonster]

Thinks are a mess at the COVID testing site in Salem, they closed the main entrance to the facility they are doing it at and put up a big do not enter sign. They also have big orange signs directing everyone to go around back. Call a number and remain in your vehicle until they call you / are ready for you to come in through the back door. This is all to protect the nurses.

According to someone who works security that I follow on Snap Chat, she said 90% of people see the do not enter sign out front and enter anyways. And she has to confront every idiot who tries to enter through the front entrance and turn them around and say no, you need to go around back and follow the directions on the orange signs.

This morning an elderly guy hit her over the head with his hat after she refused him entrance and told him to go around back.

 

[RenegadeMonster]

Florida police raid home of former state Covid-19 data scientist

Florida police raided the home of a former state coronavirus data scientist on Monday, escalating a feud between the state government and a data expert who has accused officials of trying to cover up the extent of the pandemic.

www.cnn.com

Edit: This appears to be a total intimidation attempt by Governor Desantis. She has been running her own unofficial COVID Data website reporting Florida numbers after Florida stopped publishing numbers in September.

She was fired earlier this year for publicly questioning the numbers Desantis was publishing.

It also appears to be an attempt to get her sources for where she was getting the numbers. Likely to fire them. Desantis has been activity firing a number of health officials recently.


Does this sound like China or what?

 

[ranbalam]

Michigan's partial shutdown was extended until December 20th. I'm not surprised, and can deal with it. Others are furious, as expected.

 

[Turbo]

This graph is amazing - shows how well the pfizer/biontech vaccine worked in the trial. You can see that most of the infections actually occurred during the first few days after the first injection and prior to the second, basically at the time when the body hasn't fully created an immune response.

One striking chart shows just how well Pfizer's vaccine works to prevent COVID-19 infections

Two weeks after the first shot, people who received Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine showed signs of protection. In the control group, infections climbed.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[dhodo]

This graph is amazing - shows how well the pfizer/biontech vaccine worked in the trial. You can see that most of the infections actually occurred during the first few days after the first injection and prior to the second, basically at the time when the body hasn't fully created an immune response.

View attachment 79405

One striking chart shows just how well Pfizer's vaccine works to prevent COVID-19 infections

Two weeks after the first shot, people who received Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine showed signs of protection. In the control group, infections climbed.

www.businessinsider.com

If I understood correctly, I think I heard on the radio this morning that their vaccine is 80% effective even after only the first shot, which is a good plus.

 

[nolalady]

I read somewhere else that they are estimating about 5 million families will lose their rentals in January. This is truly Dickensonian.

Without a coronavirus relief package centered on helping working families who have lost jobs and watched their savings dwindle amid the pandemic, millions of people are "headed for absolute disaster," one observer said Monday as Moody's Analytics reported that 12 million renters are expected to owe an average of $5,850 in back rent and utilities after the new year.

The financial firm reported that $70 billion could be owed to landlords in January, after a federal moratorium on evictions—put in place in September by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in the absence of any action from the Republican-led Senate aimed at helping working people—expires on December 31.

Millions of Tenants 'Headed for Absolute Disaster' After New Year, Owing Average of Nearly $6,000 in Rent and Utilities

"This is like a Charles Dickens novel. It's an evolving story of how people at the bottom are suffering."

www.commondreams.org

 

[GritNGlitter]

7 nursing home Covid-19 deaths reported after staff attended wedding

The dead were at 3 facilities, Washington state health officials said. Four other fatalities are being reviewed for possible links to the 300-person party.

www.nbcnews.com

I am so tired of news reporting "underlying conditions" with their death statistics. People really think that means "would have died anyway" but it's Covid that fucking killed them.

My wife is in Labor and Delivery and she has been working with Covid positive patients. She's more exhausted from her management not taking things seriously. She was there for an education/seminar thing and her manager took her mask off to present in a small/windowless room. Talk about leading by example.

She's also legitimately concerned by the amount of coworkers who subscribe to the conspiracy theories. This is baffling to me since there is one coworker who is on a unit delivering babies, but believes in the Q-Anon bullshit of "baby harvesting" by some shadowy cabal of democrats. THESE ARE THE PEOPLE WHO ARE PROVIDING CRITCAL CARE IN YOUR HOSPITALS AND THAT SHOULD CONCERN YOU.

My friend is a head L&D nurse, and her latest struggle is convincing the nurses who work under her that they shouldn't have a 50th birthday party in a hotel room for one of the nurses. There is such a spectrum of training in nursing--from folks with basically 6-week certificates to sky's-the-limit degree holders--and it seems a lot are confident in their absolute ignorance simply due to their proximity to scientific medical knowledge.

 

[ranbalam]

I am so tired of news reporting "underlying conditions" with their death statistics.

I know, it borders on ridiculous doesn't it? Like, they can't see that without Covid they would have lived longer? More like, choose not to acknowledge.

I'm also tired of the "I'm not worried about something with a 97% survival rate" stance. Ok, line up 100 friends and family members and go ahead and choose three. I mean, come on.

 

[GritNGlitter]

I know, it borders on ridiculous doesn't it? Like, they can't see that without Covid they would have lived longer? More like, choose not to acknowledge.

I'm also tired of the "I'm not worried about something with a 97% survival rate" stance. Ok, line up 100 friends and family members and go ahead and choose three. I mean, come on.

Right? And who gets months (years?) of fatigue, skin rash, joint pain, etc? Which promising young athlete in your family should be cool with long-term heart or lung damage? It's just disgusting.

 

[LeSamourai]

Right? And who gets months (years?) of fatigue, skin rash, joint pain, etc? Which promising young athlete in your family should be cool with long-term heart or lung damage? It's just disgusting.

The other day, I was at the pharmacy, and two elderly people were talking to each other (masked and at a distance, of course) and I only overheard a moment, but she was saying "I may only have a few years left, but I have two grandkids on the way and I'd like to be around to see them," and I thought "this is why it's not just some 'they were gonna die anyway' crap when older people die- losing those last couple of years is still a tragedy, even if you have 'pre-existing conditions.'"

Edit: I'm more replying to agree with the recent convo in general, even if I hit reply on your post out of habit!

 

[RenegadeMonster]

 

[Turbo]

If I understood correctly, I think I heard on the radio this morning that their vaccine is 80% effective even after only the first shot, which is a good plus.

It's absolutely amazing to see results like this on basically the first try with a completely new technology. On top of that we have Moderna that got similar results so we know it's reproducible. Researchers in any field can go entire careers and never see anything that clear cut. 80% on a single dose is already better than a lot of other vaccines. I'm amazed.

Now fingers crossed that the immunity lasts a decent amount of time and that it stays safe.

 

[RenegadeMonster]

I read somewhere else that they are estimating about 5 million families will lose their rentals in January. This is truly Dickensonian.

Without a coronavirus relief package centered on helping working families who have lost jobs and watched their savings dwindle amid the pandemic, millions of people are "headed for absolute disaster," one observer said Monday as Moody's Analytics reported that 12 million renters are expected to owe an average of $5,850 in back rent and utilities after the new year.

The financial firm reported that $70 billion could be owed to landlords in January, after a federal moratorium on evictions—put in place in September by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in the absence of any action from the Republican-led Senate aimed at helping working people—expires on December 31.

Millions of Tenants 'Headed for Absolute Disaster' After New Year, Owing Average of Nearly $6,000 in Rent and Utilities

"This is like a Charles Dickens novel. It's an evolving story of how people at the bottom are suffering."

www.commondreams.org

Was just having a discussion about this elsewhere.

One key point someone brought up is everyone that is behind in rent and utilities should be able to get a 0% loan and a reasonable repayment plan. The issue is these loans are only available to those who have businesses are are well qualified. Banks are not lending money to people with no interest if they are struggling.

Another thing that should be mandated is that anyone who has caught up and has become current should be still have an eviction moratorium related to previous delinquencies. We still have the issue where people are current now, but were behind during the height of the stay at home order last spring. Many landlords, especially the corporate property management companies have already filed their eviction paperwork and are just waiting for the moratorium to come to and end so they can have their court date. Because they were behind las April / May / June but are current now they will still be evicted. Many landlords, like corporate property management companies have non negotiable leases. Like where I live, if you ever find out self unable to pay in full by 15 days after the due date, it's good bye. They will proceed with the eviction process and it's non negotiable. Some residence at my apartment complex were evicted because of this and the pandemic. As soon as Massachusetts moratorium expires these evictions came quick. The CDC's moratorium meant nothing in this case, because the property management companies mortgage is not federally backed.


On the other hand, you have people saying that no additional support is needed. The economy is doing great. These people should get out and get a job. But they keep conflating the economy with the stock market. When asked to cite the economy doing great, one person mentioned "despite the pandemic the economy is booming, Tesla alone is up sevenfold". Some people seem to think every things good, and there are jobs out there if you look and really want one.

 

[nolalady]

It's absolutely amazing to see results like this on basically the first try with a completely new technology. On top of that we have Moderna that got similar results so we know it's reproducible. Researchers in any field can go entire careers and never see anything that clear cut. 80% on a single dose is already better than a lot of other vaccines. I'm amazed.

Now fingers crossed that the immunity lasts a decent amount of time and that it stays safe.

Do you know if it's safe for people with an auto-immune disease to get?

Was just having a discussion about this elsewhere.

One key point someone brought up is everyone that is behind in rent and utilities should be able to get a 0% loan and a reasonable repayment plan. The issue is these loans are only available to those who have businesses are are well qualified. Banks are not lending money to people with no interest if they are struggling.

Another thing that should be mandated is that anyone who has caught up and has become current should be still have an eviction moratorium related to previous delinquencies. We still have the issue where people are current now, but were behind during the height of the stay at home order last spring. Many landlords, especially the corporate property management companies have already filed their eviction paperwork and are just waiting for the moratorium to come to and end so they can have their court date. Because they were behind las April / May / June but are current now they will still be evicted. Many landlords, like corporate property management companies have non negotiable leases. Like where I live, if you ever find out self unable to pay in full by 15 days after the due date, it's good bye. They will proceed with the eviction process and it's non negotiable. Some residence at my apartment complex were evicted because of this and the pandemic. As soon as Massachusetts moratorium expires these evictions came quick. The CDC's moratorium meant nothing in this case, because the property management companies mortgage is not federally backed.


On the other hand, you have people saying that no additional support is needed. The economy is doing great. These people should get out and get a job. But they keep conflating the economy with the stock market. When asked to cite the economy doing great, one person mentioned "despite the pandemic the economy is booming, Tesla alone is up sevenfold". Some people seem to think every things good, and there are jobs out there if you look and really want one.

It's going to take a few years for the stock market to completely catch up to this latest blow. When you look through history, any boom that is debt financed--like this one--eventually fails and usually spectacularly. These guys are firm believers in the church of late stage capitalism where we don't need to worry about global warming, getting better paying jobs back over here and the debt rate of American families because progress will figure all of this out with no impact to our current consumption rates. These amazing behemoths of the modern market are only successful because they get public money in the form of benefits for their workers(Medicaid, Medicare, SNAP, WIC, CHIP, etc.), giant tax breaks, and lean on public utilities and services to turn a profit for shareholders. It will take a little while for this to all play out, once state governments are totally bankrupt and then start really upping our taxes. But there's only so much they can take when we only get paid so much because all of our wages have been stagnant for years. It will impact American's consumption which will ultimately be bad for wall street when no one can afford the new Apple watch or Tesla vehicle.