Oscar Predictions/Preferences:
BEST PICTURE
WILL: This one is difficult, I want to be bold and suggest Little Women, but I'm not sure that's a good bet. So based on everything else, I'm going to throw out Once Upon A Time In Hollywood. But with the Oscars, you just never know. I wouldn't be surprised to see almost any of these films win. My gut though at this moment is still Once Upon A Time In Hollywood.
SHOULD: With all these nominees, I have to go with Parasite. It's the strongest one here, and one of the most interesting, creative, surprising movies of last year. I'd love to see it win, but I just don't buy that happening, especially considering it's nominated for Best International Film, which it will win.
BEST DIRECTOR:
WILL: Sam Mendes seems most likely at this point. I have not seen 1917, but so much of it just makes me uninterested honestly. That's a me thing. However, I can recognize the skill that went into its direction (as well as another category) and I feel it's easily the most likely.
SHOULD: Once again, I gotta rep Parasite, so Bong Joon Ho. I don't need to defend my pick. Let's just say, he deserves it so much.
BEST ACTOR:
WILL: Joaquin Phoenix feels like a real lock here. Joker was nominated for a baffling amount of awards, but so much of what makes people gravitate towards this movie is his performance. So I think it's the only one it'll win.
SHOULD: Adam Driver. I loved Marriage Story. Like so much more than I believed I would. And it really made me a much bigger fan of Adam Driver than I was before (and I loved him in Girls).
BEST ACTRESS:
WILL: I mean, based on all the talk, I gotta go with Renee Zellweger.
SHOULD: Scarlett Johansson. I've always kinda liked her, but I feel this was the first time she really felt like the perfect fit for the role. Just like Adam Driver, I just think she's nails everything she does in it. And their acting, their lived-in performances (as well as the wide cast of smaller roles) elevate Marriage Story, making it, for me, a much stronger film.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
WILL: Brad Pitt. He's essentially the second lead in OUATIH, this feels like another locked in prediction.
SHOULD: Going against the grain here and picking Tom Hanks. Part of what makes A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood work so well is Tom Hanks. And he was the one thing about it I thought wouldn't work. But he so perfectly captured Fred Rogers, I just loved every time he was on screen. The directing in this movie is also really strong. So even if it's not a perfect movie, it should be recognized for Hanks and director Marielle Heller (another strong female director next to Greta Gerwig that was completely snubbed).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
WILL/SHOULD: Laura Dern. I've loved her work for years, and she just keeps getting better and better. As far as all the supporting roles in Marriage Story, she is one of the ones that shines the most. Just impeccably good. However, I gotta shout out Merritt Wever. I loved her so much in Marriage Story. Even if she doesn't get enough to do, she's so goddamn good in every second of her screen time.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
WILL/SHOULD: Parasite. This one could go honestly in any direction, I have no idea. But part of me just feels like they'll maybe maybe be compelled to give it Screenplay. I mean, it's a perfectly tight script, more so than any of the other nominees here honestly.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
WILL/SHOULD: Little Women. Perhaps Jojo Rabbit could sneak in here, and I wouldn't be upset at all - I love that movie. But What Gerwig did with Little Women should be recognized. This is the way to adapt a hugely popular book, I think.
Skipping a few categories here... I haven't seen most of the animated films or documentaries, so I can't fully comment on who should or will. International Feature Film is also obviously going to be Parasite, so I won't even talk more about that one. Original score, I'd pick Marriage Story, but I honestly have no idea what will win. Best song? I'd go with the one from Rocket Man. Sound awards...no idea what I'd pick or what will win...so I'll cap things off with...
CINEMATOGRAPHY:
WILL: 1917. This film's nominations really seem to be more because of its technical achievements (though tell me if I'm wrong). And although some are really betting on his taking Best Picture, I think it's much more likely to just get director and cinematography.
SHOULD: Gotta give it up to The Lighthouse. No other movie looked the way this one did. No other movie really committed to a style and executed it so flawlessly. I love love love this film. I wish it had gotten so many more noms. But at least, at the very very least, it got this one, which I applaud. It deserves some recognition for his cinematography. Setting aside the aspect ratio and all that, this film looks incredible. It's shot in an old style, but also modernized in places for certain sequences to really pop. There are individual shots in this movie that have stuck with me since I saw it. Just such a beautiful, dark, surreal look...I love it.