Political Discussion

[jaycee]

I know that this is the generally accepted narrative, but has anyone attempted to measure this? What slice of the population has these attitudes? How many would be willing to vote for Bernie if he is the candidate opposing Trump?

How do you measure a narrative? Polling?
BUT any survey data is less than ideal and some of it is downright not useful depending on the questions and the population surveyed.

I can only speak form my experience and opinions. I'm also assuming that there is good reason that the line of attack on social principles and Bernie specifically, is about stoking these fears.

As far as my experience. I've been called a communist more times than I care to count because I advocate for things like social medicine, renters rights, and disbarment of the police union. Many times people are joking but it's the kind-of joking where they 3/4 of the way mean it.

 

[debianlinux]

Many times people are joking but it's the kind-of joking where they 3/4 of the way mean it.

It's the kind of joking where they are just starting to hear themselves for the first time and haven't realized they are speaking from conditioning to maintain systems in place against their own best interests.

 

[RenegadeMonster]

Gallup kinda polled about this earlier this month

Socialism and Atheism Still U.S. Political Liabilities

While Americans' willingness to support a black or a woman as a candidate for president now approaches 100%, support for candidates who identify as socialist or atheist trails far behind.

news.gallup.com

I really wish there was more support for Socialism.

We really need more of it to a degree to solve the problems Capitalism have created.

 

[RenegadeMonster]

Oh yeah, and also yesterday there were protesters out on the streets in Boston protesting Socialism, Medicare For All, Student Loan Forgiveness and Welfare.

They were shouting at passersby about how we must put a stop to "people getting a free ride on the backs of hard working Americans".

 

[debianlinux]

Oh yeah, and also yesterday there were protesters out on the streets in Boston protesting Socialism, Medicare For All, Student Loan Forgiveness and Welfare.

They were shouting at passersby about how we must put a stop to "people getting a free ride on the backs of hard working Americans".

I'm confused because the hardest working americans I've seen in a long time are the Mexican immigrants that we're supposed to hate for doing all the shitty work for cheap that white americans would rather not.

 

[RenegadeMonster]

I'm confused because the hardest working americans I've seen in a long time are the Mexican immigrants that we're supposed to hate for doing all the shitty work for cheap that white americans would rather not.

I 100% agree with you.

But if these hard working Americans are anything like my father, they believe that all Mexicans are on welfare and that their tax dollars are going towards paying to support them. Kind of stupid when these same people also make the arguments that immigrants are taking all the jobs.

 

[Dtknuckles]

I'm confused because the hardest working americans I've seen in a long time are the Mexican immigrants that we're supposed to hate for doing all the shitty work for cheap that white americans would rather not.

I see this with my wife's family on a daily basis. Working 6-7 days a week.

 

[jaycee]

I really wish there was more support for Socialism.

We really need more of it to a degree to solve the problems Capitalism have created.

There is also an American-specific problem where we fail to acknowledge that the basic wealth that this country is founded on is not the innovation that laissez-faire economics contends it creates, but the labor of black and brown bodies... the labor of poor bodies. That labor has created large tailwinds for some and smaller tailwinds for others and no tailwinds for those that it exploits.

The consolidation of power (wealth, social, and political capital) that our democracy has failed to protect us against because of it's acceptance of certain tenets of capitalism is another associated foundational problem.

Societies that value human life 1st, innovation 2nd, and wealth generation 3rd are ones where more people have more ability to live longer happier lives.

The policies that Warren and Sanders are touting would be center-left in many countries. In America, where our pledge of allegiance to the flag implies a pledge of allegiance to the people who use their tailwind and wealth to consolidate power, it (social principles) can easily seem radical.

 

[wokeupnew]

So who drops out after SC?

Biden is expected to win, but I think it'll be closer than polling suggests. Polls skew much older because most are landline voters only.

Steyer is also predicted to well which may cause him to stay in the race until after Super Tuesday. I think Biden is expecting a win in SC to help propel him to perform better on Super Tuesday, but a lot of states CA/TX have already more than half of their votes counted early. Also Biden has not been working those states at all. Bernie has been all over CA/TX since two weeks ago.

I think Pete/Amy will probably hold on to Iowa/NH performances longer than they should, maybe even after Super Tuesday. Pete is still in the realm of consciousness for all Primaries even if he does not look poised to do well on Super Tuesday.

So that leaves Warren who unfortunately with a lot of voters she's been very alienating. I really do like her as a second choice and would make a good running mate to Bernie if she bit the bullet and apologized for her comments. But if Bernie is the nominee I think he'd pick someone that is not from a state so close to VT.

After ST I think Warren and one of Pete or Amy (probably Amy) drops out. Also Steyer probably drops out.

Bloomberg is a weird case, he might drop out and endorse Biden. I also think that polling has been over-reporting his numbers. There's just no way he had 15%~ of voters after coming into the race at the last second. Also his debate performances have been tragic for his campaign.

Or! since basically everyone wants to stop Bernie maybe they'll all stay in and hope for a contested convention and undermine the will of the voters. Bernie will have the most votes and delegates after the primary voting is over. But will he have the outright majority? It would be an absolutely disaster if the DNC chose Biden or whoever. The Bernie voters who are not "vote blue no matter who" would be too much of a loss and whoever the DNC chooses will 100% lose to Trump.

 

[Dtknuckles]

Gallup kinda polled about this earlier this month

Socialism and Atheism Still U.S. Political Liabilities

While Americans' willingness to support a black or a woman as a candidate for president now approaches 100%, support for candidates who identify as socialist or atheist trails far behind.

news.gallup.com

How do you measure a narrative? Polling?
BUT any survey data is less than ideal and some of it is downright not useful depending on the questions and the population surveyed.

I can only speak form my experience and opinions. I'm also assuming that there is good reason that the line of attack on social principles and Bernie specifically, is about stoking these fears.

As far as my experience. I've been called a communist more times than I care to count because I advocate for things like social medicine, renters rights, and disbarment of the police union. Many times people are joking but it's the kind-of joking where they 3/4 of the way mean it.

Yea i didn't comb through and look at the questions, but that is always important. When you use a big concept word like Socialism and Atheist nuance is lost. Polling specific policies are more useful.

 

[TenderLovingKiller®]

So who drops out after SC?

Biden is expected to win, but I think it'll be closer than polling suggests. Polls skew much older because most are landline voters only.

Steyer is also predicted to well which may cause him to stay in the race until after Super Tuesday. I think Biden is expecting a win in SC to help propel him to perform better on Super Tuesday, but a lot of states CA/TX have already more than half of their votes counted early. Also Biden has not been working those states at all. Bernie has been all over CA/TX since two weeks ago.

I think Pete/Amy will probably hold on to Iowa/NH performances longer than they should, maybe even after Super Tuesday. Pete is still in the realm of consciousness for all Primaries even if he does not look poised to do well on Super Tuesday.

So that leaves Warren who unfortunately with a lot of voters she's been very alienating. I really do like her as a second choice and would make a good running mate to Bernie if she bit the bullet and apologized for her comments. But if Bernie is the nominee I think he'd pick someone that is not from a state so close to VT.

After ST I think Warren and one of Pete or Amy (probably Amy) drops out. Also Steyer probably drops out.

Bloomberg is a weird case, he might drop out and endorse Biden. I also think that polling has been over-reporting his numbers. There's just no way he had 15%~ of voters after coming into the race at the last second. Also his debate performances have been tragic for his campaign.

Or! since basically everyone wants to stop Bernie maybe they'll all stay in and hope for a contested convention and undermine the will of the voters. Bernie will have the most votes and delegates after the primary voting is over. But will he have the outright majority? It would be an absolutely disaster if the DNC chose Biden or whoever. The Bernie voters who are not "vote blue no matter who" would be too much of a loss and whoever the DNC chooses will 100% lose to Trump.

I don’t think anybody drops after South Carolina. My guess is even those that do poorly will wait until after Super Tuesday to make it official. Unfortunately the two most likely to drop out after Super Tuesday will be Klobachar and Warren. I think their resource will dry up pretty quickly if they do not do something unexpected. I expect Pete and Biden to stick for a while longer to see if one of them can become the non-billionaire alternative to Bernie.

 

[RenegadeMonster]

Why do they keep saying history shows who ever wins South Carolina always wins the nomination.

I have heard people say Joe Biden is currently leading and if he wins South Carolina history shows he will win the nomination. If he doesn't win, his campaign is as good as over.

 

[TenderLovingKiller®]

Why do they keep saying history shows who ever wins South Carolina always wins the nomination.

I have heard people say Joe Biden is currently leading and if he wins South Carolina history shows he will win the nomination. If he doesn't win, his campaign is as good as over.

Based strictly on past results, it appears that while not perfect; in the Democratic Primary, South Carolina has done a better job predicting the eventual nominee than either Iowa or New Hampshire have, especially recently.

If this was the GOP primary on the other hand, SC has been amazingly perfect...

South Carolina presidential primary - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[tvham]

So who drops out after SC?

Bloomberg is a weird case, he might drop out and endorse Biden. I also think that polling has been over-reporting his numbers. There's just no way he had 15%~ of voters after coming into the race at the last second. Also his debate performances have been tragic for his campaign.

I live in California and I receive at least 3-5 pieces of mail from Bloomberg every damn day. Yesterday I got a flyer saying both the mayors of San Francisco and San Jose are voting for him...I have a feeling he might do well in our state considering how polarizing Bernie is for Democrats on the fringe.

 

[RenegadeMonster]

Obama sends cease-and-desist letter to Republican super PAC over Biden ad

Representatives for Barack Obama sent a cease-and-desist letter to a Republican super PAC on Wednesday, demanding that they stop airing an ad that uses the former President's words to imply former Vice President Joe Biden supports "plantation politics."

www.cnn.com

"This unauthorized use of President Obama's name, image, likeness, voice and book passage is clearly intended to mislead the target audience of the ad into believing that the passage from the audiobook is a statement that was made by President Barack Obama during his presidency, when it was in fact made by a barber in a completely different context more than 20 years ago," stated the letter written by Patchen M. Haggerty.

 

[TenderLovingKiller®]

Oh! He doesn’t wear pants!

 

[Dtknuckles]

I live in California and I receive at least 3-5 pieces of mail from Bloomberg every damn day. Yesterday I got a flyer saying both the mayors of San Francisco and San Jose are voting for him...I have a feeling he might do well in our state considering how polarizing Bernie is for Democrats on the fringe.

I saw on 538 that Bernie has I think more than a 80% chance of winning CA.

 

[tvham]

I saw on 538 that Bernie has I think more than a 80% chance of winning CA.

I don’t doubt that he’ll win but I think Bloomberg has a chance to come in second, much to the chagrin of Warren fans like myself

 

[TenderLovingKiller®]

I don’t doubt that he’ll win but I think Bloomberg has a chance to come in second, much to the chagrin of Warren fans like myself

I believe the big number is 15% of the vote that is the threshold you have to reach to acquire a portion of the delegates.

If California polls hold, only Bernie Sanders would win any delegates chosen by statewide vote

No one else is averaging above a 15% statewide threshold. But that could change — and candidates can also pick up delegates within congressional districts.

calmatters.org

 

[DownIsTheNewUp]

Hey @jaycee your post on the previous page is some awesome stuff. I’m super busy today with work but wanted to say

a) the reason the Pete moment was relevant to me was because Sanders had spent the previous portion of the debate with his hand raised while everyone lobbed attacks designed to question his electability. I’m ALL for that happening. It NEEDS to happen before Trump. Especially because I’m realizing that the stock market gains (which has not benefited the majority of my generation and hasnot resulted in wage increases) have pacified a portion of your section of the country that was on board with Sanders in 16’.

That said, the moderation was atrocious and this was one of Sanders first real opportunities to respond... and then Pete just blabbered over him. When it happened a couple other times, it started to feel very intentional.

B) You are absolutely right that younger people don’t give a fuck about the Castro thing. If anything we see it as hypocritical considering how many Dems are in bed with countries like Saudi Arabia. And a lot of us will straight up stay home if Bloomberg is the nom or they take it from Sanders at the convention. The later is actually scarier because it would potentially result in a TON of young people becoming permanent non-voters.

Here is a study FB fed me during my lunch. I hate that the author intentionally conflates communism with socialism but what really matters is the data. And I promise is it’s pretty similar among people 30-38 as we are the ones that actually came of age among the recession.

New Survey Reveals The Emerging ‘Socialist’ Majority Propping Up Bernie Sanders Among Democrats

The latest Forbes Under 30 Voter Survey, powered by Zogby, shows the far-left appeal the Vermont senator has on young Democrats.

www.forbes.com

Its really unfortunate that Warren didn’t gain more momentum with the 45+ crowd.