Political Discussion

nolalady said:
The problem with all of this is that when we are talking about human behavior, or predicting human behavior based on past behaviors, this is all a function of probability. Scientists aren't more okay with the maybe. They just understand that the math and model is only a suggestion of reality based on the limited data we have. The models are supposed to show us how likely a given answer is if someone has the choice between yes or no, rep or dem, but they also account for random guessing and error which is why we have confidence intervals, and to me, this is more accurate. But I understand the math behind all of it.
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I agree with some of this and disagree with some of this. I think what "maybe" means to you depends on what your discipline is. Variability is a description of the maybe... of the range of possibilities... and models (again discipline specific) are tools that use the past to provide reasonable guesses at the future. They are never answers. Ideally they provide reasonable information based upon sound data, but they can't tell you what's going to happen. Only what is more or less likely.

I don't fully understand modeling based on political polls, but my guess is that even with significantly large enough sample sizes there is greater "maybe" because there is a human factor involved and we are inherently (seemingly) unreliable beasts.

Regardless of any of that my thought was more that people see polling information / models, often they see this or that %, or this or that # of respondents and they don't have the knowledge to understand the fluff around those numbers and that they are not an answer (just information).
 
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www.project-syndicate.org

White-Collar Crime, No Punishment | by Katharina Pistor - Project Syndicate

Katharina Pistor warns that law enforcement agencies are not only ignoring but becoming complicit in white-collar criminality.
www.project-syndicate.org www.project-syndicate.org

This is not an isolated case. While fraud, embezzlement, tax evasion, and money laundering are still labeled as crimes in most countries, their enforcement is declining rapidly, and nowhere more so than in the United States under President Donald Trump. As my Columbia Law School colleague John C. Coffee documents in his new book, Corporate Crime and Punishment: The Crisis of Underenforcement, law-enforcement actions against corporations are down by 76% compared to the Obama era, and by 26-30% for white-collar crime in general. At the current pace, it will not take long for financial crime to be whitewashed completely.
 
Suspension is unthinking, punitive, and pointless. It does nothing but shame and and stigmatize the student and sometimes the parents. If the intent is to prevent and educate about anti-social behavior by removing children from social situations it is also illogical.
 
www.cnn.com

Minnesota Covid-19 survey halted after team members report racial slurs, state officials say

A door-to-door Covid-19 survey in Minnesota has been halted after team members reported receiving racial and ethnic slurs in the city of Eitzen, according to state health officials, but the city denies the claims.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com

Apparently our country is so divided that state and federal public health officials going door-to-door to conduct a survey on COVID-19 in Minnesota had to stop after receiving racial and ethnic slurs. :cry:
 
jaycee said:
Suspension is unthinking, punitive, and pointless. It does nothing but shame and and stigmatize the student and sometimes the parents. If the intent is to prevent and educate about anti-social behavior by removing children from social situations it is also illogical.
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Ca just made it illegal to suspend a student for willful defiance. The usuals were up in arms about it. The ones that don’t look at the research that shows all the negative impact it has.
 
Sighs, of course the first Trump Biden debate will be via Fox.

Fox News Sunday anchor and moderator of the debate Chris Wallace will not be fact-checking during the debate. Trump is free to say whatever he pleases with only Joe Biden challenging Trump on anything he says.

I just hope Biden doesn't use up all his debate time correcting Trump. As that's not going to gain him any support from Trump supporters.
 
RenegadeMonster said:
Sighs, of course the first Trump Biden debate will be via Fox.

Fox News Sunday anchor and moderator of the debate Chris Wallace will not be fact-checking during the debate. Trump is free to say whatever he pleases with only Joe Biden challenging Trump on anything he says.

I just hope Biden doesn't use up all his debate time correcting Trump. As that's not going to gain him any support from Trump supporters.
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On the plus side it: 1) gets the inevitable FN debate out of the way early and 2) Chris Wallace may be the closest thing the channel has to a legitimate journalist.
 
waruv said:
The NYT has Trump's tax returns

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Shocker. The Grifter in Chief is a fraud and a liar. I am glad the tax info is now out in the open but Unfortunately this will not change many peoples minds. Most of his cult will just decry “fake news” and the majority who find him abhorrent this just reinforces what was already abundantly clear. When this would have helpful was back in 2016 prior to Election Day. Better late than never I suppose.
 
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TenderLovingKiller® said:
Shocker. The Grifter in Chief is a fraud and a liar. I am glad the tax info is now out in the open but Unfortunately this will not change many peoples minds. Most of his cult will just decry “fake news” and the majority who find him abhorrent this just reinforces what was already abundantly clear. When this would have helpful was back in 2016 prior to Election Day. Better late than never I suppose.
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The amount he pays is gonna get all the initial play, but the really worrying part is the hundreds of millions of dollars he is personally on the hook for. That’s a huge liability for someone with the clearances he has.
 
TenderLovingKiller® said:
Shocker. The Grifter in Chief is a fraud and a liar. I am glad the tax info is now out in the open but Unfortunately this will not change many peoples minds. Most of his cult will just decry “fake news” and the majority who find him abhorrent this just reinforces what was already abundantly clear. When this would have helpful was back in 2016 prior to Election Day. Better late than never I suppose.
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I don't know if they'll say fake news. Many of his supporters are proud of him for taking advantage of loopholes.
 
dhodo said:
I don't know if they'll say fake news. Many of his supporters are proud of him for taking advantage of loopholes.
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Yep. All I ever hear from Republicans and Libertarians is them bitching about how much in taxes they pay and how they want government out of their lives but their cool with government outlawing abortion because that’s different. I can say for as long as I live I’ll never vote for a Republican. Not even for dog catcher.
 
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