The NBA Thread

mdmost said:
You cannot tell me this shit isn’t rigged. The Mavs getting the #1 pick is ridiculous
Click to expand...

1747150038197.png

Let’s round up and say each of these teams had a two percent chance. I’m not a mathematician but something with a two percent chance of happening should happen, on average, once every 50 chances. In the NBA lottery it has happened 4 times in the last 32 years.
 
Jeff Lerner said:
View attachment 234054

Let’s round up and say each of these teams had a two percent chance. I’m not a mathematician but something with a two percent chance of happening should happen, on average, once every 50 chances. In the NBA lottery it has happened 4 times in the last 32 years.
Click to expand...
It’s kind of the equivalent of pulling the Ace of Spades 4 times if you randomly pulled a card from a playing deck 32 times. Not impossible, not likely either (I’d expect once or twice). Funnily enough, I’m reading a book about uncertainty, probability, and chance right now and it puts events like these in perspective.
 
wmeugene said:
It’s kind of the equivalent of pulling the Ace of Spades 4 times if you randomly pulled a card from a playing deck 32 times. Not impossible, not likely either (I’d expect once or twice). Funnily enough, I’m reading a book about uncertainty, probability, and chance right now and it puts events like these in perspective.
Click to expand...
Does anyone know how to calculate the probability of this happening?

.
 
I think to me it was more that of all the years for that level of improbability to happen to a franchise that decided to trade away their greatest asset to the league's biggest name, to lose a play-in game to keep them in line to have a chance at the lottery. All of that in this year just felt like too much. I'm happy for Mavs fans that were so shit upon by this organization and got their favorite player ripped away from them in probably the most unprecedented fashion to then land the next generational player. To go from Dirk to Luka to Cooper. I'm happy for them. I dipped out of the Mavs when Dirk retired.
 
Jeff Lerner said:
Does anyone know how to calculate the probability of this happening?

.
Click to expand...
It's a pretty complex equation and to be honest, over 32 tries, the probability of any particular outcome over the long run would be miniscule.

The probability of four longshot picks (let's say any pick that has a 2 percent chance of happening) after 4 lotteries would roughly be 1 in 200.

Each lottery is independent of the next, so that also effects the odds and makes seemingly bizarre outcomes more likely.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top