I suspect a majority of people feel similarly. I just wanted to point out that this is not a universal truth and that yes, I do think it’s shitty. “People can do what they want” is basically why humanity is doomed.
That Escalated Quickly (aka Common Records Turned Rare)
- Thread starter swamp
- Start date
NateOEB
Well-Known Member
Nasdisc - Buy & Sell Vinyl Records, CDs & Cassettes It is interesting, but needs more sales history to set a going rate. I've yet to buy anything through the site, but I do check it out every once in a while.
waruv
Well-Known Member
The tough balance for me on that is finding the equilibrium point where people buying to flip it are less incentivized to buy it. Like your example, if market on a VMP record is $100 and you got it for $30, listing it at $40 makes it a lot more likely it goes to someone who will just flip it, negating your good intentions. I do get the feeling though for sure, I generally refuse to re-sell concert tickets above face for that reason.
MikeH
Well-Known Member
I just think it's on buyers to do their own research. You have Popsike and discogs and gripsweat for a broader picture of what things sold at. You can look at discogs, ebay and search UPC codes to see if any smaller shops are selling copies of an album you want for an idea of what the album is currently selling for.
I also don't think the data is all that bad on discogs. obviously there are extreme cases like really rare records where one sale can completely skew the median prices. but the main issues IMO are:
A) people are uneducated on record buying. but they will learn quick enough once they get ripped off
B) People preying on those uneducated buyers
C) people are impatient and willing to pay a premium to get something "now" versus waiting for a repress
D) record companies and places like Newbury and VMP push severe FOMO on albums by creating a model of false scarcity. I am of the mindset that most records will get a repress unless there's something like uncleared samples on it or the band is just really not very popular.
I don't think it's really on discogs to fix any of those issues. I try to tell people as much as possible if there is any news about a repress for an album i see selling for crazy prices. in a lot of cases (especially with moFis and other "audiophile labels") most people buy the albums for crazy prices anyway because either they want it now or they are looking at them as investments that will only go up in price. i feel like records as collectibles/investments has been a relatively new, more widespread phenomenon and it wasn't a big thing when I first started collecting about 15 years ago. that is largely because of bullet point D above. I often see people paying a lot of extra money for just a color variant even though the same exact pressing can be had on black vinyl for 1/4 the price.
anywho, i do think things will correct back down a bit. i don't think vinyl is entirely a bubble now but the really high resale on kinda common albums may drop back down.
and as for the part about correct valuation of your collections, i think it's really fun to see those stats, but never really thought they were accurate. specifically because they don't take into account record grading. i could have an album that is "worth" $500 according to discogs, but if mine is a beat up copy with scratches, it's obviously not worth that. even median price doesn't really account for that so I'm sure my record collection valuation is off. Plus if I ever tried to sell it, I'd never get close to the median price.
Sebastian
It’s Wool…
So is it safe to say that Discogs has taken over the market from eBay regarding establishing what a record is worth? Or does it even matter?
Corycm
Well-Known Member
Strictly anecdotal - but all of the used shops I deal with on a national level use it for baselining most premium/“collectible” titles and newer releases. Most places that deal with large volumes of used still stick to the older model for everything else.
MikeH
Well-Known Member
I think you just have to look at multiple sources (ebay, discogs, gripsweat/popsike) and also double-check that it's still not in print. I've ordered stuff off discogs and ebay before and not checked label websites and then felt like a dingus when i saw it was still in stock.
agreed with @Corycm above too. the reputable used shops use discogs median/sales history and take condition into account for pricing of used stuff. the shady shops use discogs current asking price as a baseline. at my old local, i noticed they were always at median or below compared to discogs pricing so after my first two or so visits, i just trusted their pricing.
waruv
Well-Known Member
I think it's context dependent sadly. Super duper generally, I'm good with using Discogs as a market setter on titles that are not frequently sold, but it isn't as accurate on titles that are trafficked a lot or have a logical reason for a value increase or decrease (artist popularity spikes, a record is re-pressed that was OOP for years, etc.).
Like, I have a sheet I priced off of Discogs on a first draft and as I go through it to prep a Reddit post, a ton of prices have changed on secondary source checking and a couple outright removed as it was repressed (and as such I'd prefer to keep it for the price it's going for now).
Corycm
Well-Known Member
Just to add to that, for non-premium titles, that’s usually going to depend on the shop both by region and by stock and stock history. Like an average off the street record. Let’s say like a Rush “Moving Pictures” that’s not particularly special, and in G to VG condition. I’m not going to go out and chase a Discogs ptice if I’m a buyer/manager. I have my baseline used inventory prices and it’s going to drop into one of those preestablished buckets based on how much I paid and how fast it’s going to move.
When I was managing my store, for example, for LPs I had $1 bin plus $4/$6/$8 price points (this was like 20+ years ago). I know that Rush albums move fast and don’t come in a lot, so I’m fine dropping it into my $9 bucket, likewise I’ll give someone closer to the top end of my preset buy prices for it, which also usually have buckets (in this case $1/$3/$5, without getting into bulk buys which is a whole other thing).
Anyway, this is a pretty standard model for shops. Pricing/number of price points changes based on region, etc. (my Iowa shop is going to have a different price and inventory profile than one in NYC) but conceptually it’s fairly common.
I can't see accurate market data doing any favors for those of us who want record prices to stay down. For whatever reasons, people are going wild for records and gladly paying a premium to snag second hand items for their collection.
TheThinWhiteDuke
Well-Known Member
I actually think the opposite- not that we are in a "bubble" (the vinyl revival has been going on for 15 years, it's time to retire that word), but the supply chain/pressing plant backlogs are going to keep so many albums perpetually OOP for years to come because of everyone buying them up as soon as every small batch is put out. See what's happening with Radiohead and MF DOOM. Until the plants can keep things in print, i don't see values correcting. i actually think we are closer to where we were in 2010, where lots of the desirable albums hadn't been in print since the 90's and prices were obscene.
i think so, if only due to eBay's high fees pushing listing prices higher, and it's obvious preference to power sellers for visibility. On discogs newer sellers get top exposure with lower prices
BTW, if anyone remembers my sale thread from the end of 2019, I sold like 40% of my large collection to pay off a ton of debt. At the time, I was super grateful that the market was what it was and I could turn my unbridled spending habit into something that actually helped me avoid a huge life stumbling block...but, if I had waited 7-8 months, I would have made soooo much more. Lol.
MikeH
Well-Known Member
fair point. i think since my mindset is that most albums will be repressed, the supply chain issue of represses going in and out of stock quickly doesn't bother me as much. I know stuff like In Rainbows can be hard to find now, but I feel like I continuously see restocks of those and MF Doom lately. They sell out quickly, but a lot of Doom's catalogue keeps getting repressed.
i did forget about ebay's crazy selling fees too now. that's a great point.
waruv
Well-Known Member
*looks at the Billy Strings Home prices and then Reddit comments of an imminent repress and Acoustic Sounds having it on pre-order"
Mmhmm. Seems right.
Yes to this.
I could also point out the Apollo master's fire in 2019... What I am seeing is a lot of old machinery and a lot of old plans trying to keep up with modern demand. But if something on the press breaks, are these plans going to be able to find parts to replace broken parts? What about people who know how to service these machines? I don't believe there are any new record pressing facilities being made. People are just reopening old factories or buying old equipment. So what happens in 5 to 10 years, when these presses have been going 90 to nothing trying to catch up with a backlog?
I'm seeing this in many other industries in the US, not just vinyl, but it's particularly bad in vinyl given that many of these machines were mothballed for decades, and there are still machines mothballed because very few people know how to actually press a record. We can also talk about the material that vinyl is made from and realize that it's an oil based medium which requires fossil fuels, so we would also have to loop in gas prices because if oil and gas keep rising in price, this is going to directly drive costs up (not to mention the indirect cost). So we have crumbling infrastructure, higher materials costs, and fewer and fewer people who know how to do jobs associated with record pressing. Then toss in a monopolistic music industry that doesn't want to sink any costs into physical copies of anything because they make more money and have to deal with less hassle with digital files and you have a recipe for continuing supply chain failure.
MikeH
Well-Known Member
I believe new machines are being made, but the waitlist for those even is astronomical. prices have already gone up at many retailers/labels--AP, MoFi, Blue Note Tone Poets, Acoustic Sounds series have all raised prices because of the material costs going up.
I'm actually surprised that the music industry doesn't want to sell physical copies of things? is it just because there is essentially more up front costs? With how many variations of every album there are, that statement surprises me. Many artists on big labels put out tons of variants to sell copies to chart better vs digital streams. And you'd think that physical sales + streaming doesn't overlap a ton. I would imagine that many people still stream an album even after buying physical copies.
I should say the CEOs of mega companies really only want us streaming music and other entertainment. I've read how a lot of these entertainment companies want to go towards streaming models where people pay a continuous monthly fee for access instead of someone paying a one time cost and owning something outright. Not only is there no physical thing to produce, but you also create a continuous stream of revenue. There's no pressure from the top to get these plans up and running. All of the pressure is coming from people like us who want physical copies.
MikeH
Well-Known Member
yea-- subscription models generate a lot of income without a ton of overhead. i would still wager that physical sales + streaming don't overlap a ton. i don't know that a vinyl purchase would make a significant dent in stream numbers just because if people like an album, they will likely still stream it whenever they aren't in front of their record player. look at somebody like Taylor Swift. She sold a ton of copies of vinyl, and still gets tons of streams. I know it's probably different for smaller acts.
Also trying to open a new pressing plant right now seems like a very risky investment. it would take a ton of capital up front -- machines are crazy expensive, no access to lacquers so you're likely doing DMM only, and there are likely a lot of obstacles to get up and running. i don't think there really is a "bubble" and think vinyl sales will continue to be high but the idea that the bubble might burst would be concerning to anybody thinking about opening a plant. i bet it takes years to possibly get back to a place where we aren't waiting a year for a preorder.
Yep, that's part of it too.
The few people that actually have the capital to open up any plant in the US, probably isn't interested in records. And anyone that wants to put up a plant would have to get financing from a bank. I don't really know if banks would want to gamble on that.
As for the subscription models, you and I aren't their target market. Our kids are their target market. There's no way that vinyl will ever make a dent in subscription numbers because there aren't enough of us. And that's sort of my point, while you and I are eyeing represses, most of the world streams their music. Regardless of how much more we spend on music than the average bear, there's just not enough of us to warrant too much consideration in a board meeting. We are the target market for VMP, but Sony music isn't sweating over us.
I hadn't heard about the new machines and plants. That's actually a huge relief on me. This will always be a niche market, but things like art and wine are also a niche market, so that doesn't mean it's going to go anywhere. But all I see at this point is the cost of production rising, which will inevitably make all prices rise. I do think there is some inflation due to current supply lines and the "cool" factor of vinyl right now, but given the price rises in vinyl, I see this market mirroring the wine and art market of 2021--which also saw inflated pricing. I really want to say that once it stops being "cool", we'll see a cool down, but given inflation and the current stock market, I am seeing things like vinyl, art, and wine going for crazy prices because they are appreciating so much faster than cash. So yes, I do think that eventually we will have a vinyl market correction, but I'm concerned with how much people are using these sorts of collectables as places to park money that will only appreciate.
