Neverending Covid-19 Coronavirus

[Indymisanthrope]

In short, the UK government didn't ignore scientific advice- it has in fact been completely beholden to it.

Are we reading the same article? The entire thing is about the government's failure, at multiple levels, to heed the growing body of scientific evidence or even to participate in intra-EU information sharing about the crisis when the opportunity was available.

Listening to advisers who have mitigated their response based on what they believe is palatable, without sufficiently stress testing or interrogating their conclusions =/= beholden to science. It's just a group of grown men appealing to the magical thinking of national exceptionalism (hello, yes, takes one to know one).

 

[Melt Face Molly Drop]

Depressing news is depressing.
View attachment 40001

 

[Chucktshoes]

 

[Captainfog]

Are we reading the same article? The entire thing is about the government's failure, at multiple levels, to heed the growing body of scientific evidence or even to participate in intra-EU information sharing about the crisis when the opportunity was available.

Listening to advisers who have mitigated their response based on what they believe is palatable, without sufficiently stress testing or interrogating their conclusions =/= beholden to science. It's just a group of grown men appealing to the magical thinking of national exceptionalism (hello, yes, takes one to know one).

10 Days That Changed Britain: "Heated" Debate Between Scientists Forced Boris Johnson To Act On Coronavirus

“This is going to get much, much worse, very quickly, both in terms of deaths and the economy,” a cabinet minister told BuzzFeed News. “It will not be long before we are getting numbers like Italy. I don’t think people realise that yet.”

www.buzzfeed.com

 

[Ed Selley]

Are we reading the same article? The entire thing is about the government's failure, at multiple levels, to heed the growing body of scientific evidence or even to participate in intra-EU information sharing about the crisis when the opportunity was available.

Don't worry, for the benefit of any pre-existing beliefs, it doesn't exonerate Johnson but it does provide rather more context to how and why things have happened here as they have.

The article does make it quite clear that the Government has followed the advice of the people employed to be listened to- for better or worse- and those people filtered that information to fit an existing model. FWIW, the EU's role in this has been secondary to individual governments across member states. That's why there's full lockdowns with army involvement in France, a voluntary one in Sweden and the Netherlands actually pursuing the herd immunity goal.

Listening to advisers who have mitigated their response based on what they believe is palatable, without sufficiently stress testing or interrogating their conclusions =/= beholden to science. It's just a group of grown men appealing to the magical thinking of national exceptionalism (hello, yes, takes one to know one).

My reason for linking to the article is that it does suggest that some of the UK's response is down to policy and policy that's been around for a long time. It hasn't acted on the fly and it hasn't (it seems to its own detriment) bypassed nongovernmental organisations put in place. My argument- which obviously will forever be speculative- is that any Prime Minister would have largely followed these same basic policies with only some minor tweaking around the edges.

 

[Captainfog]

While we are on the subject of historical policy, here is a thread that shows that the issues we are now facing were actually flagged a decade ago.

 

[Colonel_Angus]

Just for fun
View attachment 39907

Actual footage of me and @Jonathan Y right now:

 

[Jonathan Y]

Actual footage of me and @Jonathan Y right now:

HAHAHAHAHA!!! Factual!

 

[Indymisanthrope]

My reason for linking to the article is that it does suggest that some of the UK's response is down to policy and policy that's been around for a long time. It hasn't acted on the fly and it hasn't (it seems to its own detriment) bypassed nongovernmental organisations put in place. My argument- which obviously will forever be speculative- is that any Prime Minister would have largely followed these same basic policies with only some minor tweaking around the edges.

So the UK's predicament was just unavoidable because of a cultural resistance to the alternatives?

That sounds like a defense that will enjoy some popularity here as well.

 

[RenegadeMonster]

Turns out there really is a supply issue with toilet paper and it's not just people hoarding it causing the shortage.

Toilet paper production is split between for home use and commercial. Commercial use is a bigger portion of the pie.

With everyone suddenly at home more there is more demand for home use toilet paper. To the levels that there would be issues if people weren't hoarding it as well.

Production has to shift from creating more commercial toilet paper to more home use toilet paper.

All of which takes time. Especially when most of our toilet paper is manufactured in China. It would take a few weeks to shift production lines and a few more weeks on ship to be imported to the United States.

 

[Ed Selley]

So the UK's predicament was just unavoidable because of a cultural resistance to the alternatives?

That sounds like a defense that will enjoy some popularity here as well.

A less glib summary might be that the UK planned for a pandemic response in manner that was pretty thorough* but unsuited to what has actually happened. It then acted too slowly to adjust the plan in light of new information. What hasn't happened is that ideologues tore the plans up- for better or worse, it largely followed the plans drawn up by the people that six months ago, nobody would have credibly suggested ignoring.

* To save anyone chiming in with "ShOuLd HaVe MoRe VeNtiLaToRs ThO", let's be completely honest as to how the UK works. If a government, trust or individual hospital had gone long on pandemic preparation, the moment that their A&E times slipped, cancer waiting lists lengthened, etc, they'd have been pilloried for it. It's not a system that rewards planning for the never never.

 

[Teeeee]

Turns out there really is a supply issue with toilet paper and it's not just people hoarding it causing the shortage.

Toilet paper production is split between for home use and commercial. Commercial use is a bigger portion of the pie.

With everyone suddenly at home more there is more demand for home use toilet paper. To the levels that there would be issues if people weren't hoarding it as well.

Production has to shift from creating more commercial toilet paper to more home use toilet paper.

All of which takes time. Especially when most of our toilet paper is manufactured in China. It would take a few weeks to shift production lines and a few more weeks on ship to be imported to the United States.

Finally an explanation that makes sense. Thank you!!!

 

[Joe Mac]

* To save anyone chiming in with "ShOuLd HaVe MoRe VeNtiLaToRs ThO", let's be completely honest as to how the UK works. If a government, trust or individual hospital had gone long on pandemic preparation, the moment that their A&E times slipped, cancer waiting lists lengthened, etc, they'd have been pilloried for it. It's not a system that rewards planning for the never never.

And after a decade of ideological austerity let’s face it, how could they be expected to even contemplate planning for such future events, most trusts are doing there upmost to give the best care possible without going bankrupt. It makes you wonder just how bad a state the NHS would have been in without the 13 years of actual capital investment in it between 97 and 2010.

 

[BazookaTooth]

Turns out there really is a supply issue with toilet paper and it's not just people hoarding it causing the shortage.

Toilet paper production is split between for home use and commercial. Commercial use is a bigger portion of the pie.

With everyone suddenly at home more there is more demand for home use toilet paper. To the levels that there would be issues if people weren't hoarding it as well.

Production has to shift from creating more commercial toilet paper to more home use toilet paper.

All of which takes time. Especially when most of our toilet paper is manufactured in China. It would take a few weeks to shift production lines and a few more weeks on ship to be imported to the United States.

 

[Ed Selley]

And after a decade of ideological austerity let’s face it, how could they be expected to even contemplate planning for such future events, most trusts are doing there upmost to give the best care possible without going bankrupt. It makes you wonder just how bad a state the NHS would have been in without the 13 years of actual capital investment in it between 97 and 2010.

You don't even need austerity- although obviously it didn't help. Everything is calculated for the here and now. If there was more money being spent, it has to be spent on stuff that wins you the next election. Something open ended won't get a look in.

EDIT @BazookaTooth- love this.

 

[Captainfog]

So the UK's predicament was just unavoidable because of a cultural resistance to the alternatives?

That sounds like a defense that will enjoy some popularity here as well.

It's also nonsense. They formed their policy based on the 'science' that agreed with their political agenda as exposed by various publications across the political spectrum.

It's a feeble excuse used to justify a callous and irresponsible response by the government. It's got nothing to do with critics (from across the scientific and medical community) scoring political points. Everyone wants the government to succeed and protect us all.

 

[Indymisanthrope]

A less glib summary might be that the UK planned for a pandemic response in manner that was pretty thorough* but unsuited to what has actually happened. It then acted too slowly to adjust the plan in light of new information. What hasn't happened is that ideologues tore the plans up- for better or worse, it largely followed the plans drawn up by the people that six months ago, nobody would have credibly suggested ignoring.

* To save anyone chiming in with "ShOuLd HaVe MoRe VeNtiLaToRs ThO", let's be completely honest as to how the UK works. If a government, trust or individual hospital had gone long on pandemic preparation, the moment that their A&E times slipped, cancer waiting lists lengthened, etc, they'd have been pilloried for it. It's not a system that rewards planning for the never never.

I didn't really mean for "cultural resistance" to be glib. It's a real thing that pervades institutions, media, lifestyles, policy, etc. There is clearly a lot of that in play here in the US as well, with states that STILL won't issue orders that would take more effective measures to protect the public.

One of the things this crisis has laid bare for the West as a whole is the paradox of preparation, that to adequately prepare for -- or respond to -- any disaster of this sort is to have the appearance of overreaction. To take the proper amount of preventive action is by definition to prevent the disaster from becoming one in the first place. We are generally resistant to that level of proactivity.

But it's also a convenient deflection for any leader who fails to engage in even a modicum of reactivity on a personal level. Johnson's dismissive bravado didn't derive from his government's assessment of the threat level, but from a refusal to practice sensible everyday guidance. Likewise, we see in the US that the notorious germaphobe Trump declines to model social distancing or normalize the use of masks, because it is perceived to be damaging to his image and/or alarmist. Therein lies the true failure in leadership from both men: one can and should acknowledge your culture's resistance to new behaviors, but there's a fine line between projecting a sense of calm and setting the expectation for better habits by leading with your own example.

 

[Ed Selley]

Everyone wants the government to succeed and protect us all.

That's just the reality of what we've been reduced to. I'm all for closing shops and public spaces, doesn't mean I'm not nervous about lunatics like Johnson and Cummings wielding such power. I'm not convinced they're going to give it all back when it's over.

Look- contrary to what you might think- I don't care about the minutiae of your beliefs and biases, they're yours and you're welcome to them. I'd rather you didn't pretend you don't have them though. I certainly have mine.

 

[RenegadeMonster]

Illinois Mayor Sends Police To Break Up Parties. They Found His Wife At One Of Them.

The Alton, Ill., mayor said his wife showed a stunning lack of judgment in violating stay-at-home orders intended to stop the spread of coronavirus.

www.yahoo.com

 

[Captainfog]

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Look- contrary to what you might think- I don't care about the minutiae of your beliefs and biases, they're yours and you're welcome to them. I'd rather you didn't pretend you don't have them though. I certainly have mine.

I don't try to hide them, I'd also rather the government succeeded and protected my family. I don't want people to die. That's infinitely better than saying I told you so to Tory voters.