NHL Thread Because There Isn't An NHL Thread

I want a numbers wonk to tell me what the average odds are of scoring when you pull the goalie for the +1 vs. the odds of being scored on with a goalie pulled. I know it’s traditional strategy, and virtually everyone rolls the dice but I wanna know what the actual odds are.
 
Corycm said:
I want a numbers wonk to tell me what the average odds are of scoring when you pull the goalie for the +1 vs. the odds of being scored on with a goalie pulled. I know it’s traditional strategy, and virtually everyone rolls the dice but I wanna know what the actual odds are.
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hockey-graphs.com

The State of Goalie Pulling in the NHL

When people ask me how to get into sports analytics, I always suggest starting with a question that they’re interested in exploring and using that question as a framework for learning the domain kn…
hockey-graphs.com hockey-graphs.com

success_time-2.png
 
Corycm said:
Actually it does, thanks! If you read through far enough it gives you a success rate, which is close enough. Around 15% success rate for 1 goal deficit.
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Perfect! You're right that the success rate is more important than the actual chances of scoring versus allowing a goal with an empty net, but I also found this, regarding the original AC Thomas research:

"In the data being considered, a goaltender was pulled in 64% of games played. In 34% of those game a goal was scored with one net empty, and of those goals 30% were scored by the team that pulled their goaltender."

www.hockeywilderness.com

The risk/reward of pulling the goalie

Patrick Roy had a knack for pulling his goalie early in games where his team trailed. Was he on something, or onto something?
www.hockeywilderness.com www.hockeywilderness.com
 
The Preds decided to show up for the first period today. They are a pretty hockey team when they don't let the other team camp in front of their net.
 
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