Political Discussion

[Sonicpharmacist]

This is the argument that was handed to me by Clinton supporters in 2016. And by Kerry supporters in 04.

How'd that work out again?

Meanwhile that same argument was (as I mentioned elsewhere) used against Jared Polis' in the primaries for Governor. Pretty sure he won the general by double digits and has gotten more done (as it pertains to real change) for the state in 7 months than the the 2 previous (centrist) Governors got done in their entire terms.

There are MANY reasons it didn’t work out for HRC. She was a terrible candidate. Republicans hated her with a passion, as did many progressives, with good reason. Despite all those flaws, I still voted for her because I felt it was my duty as a voter to do what I could to keep DJT out of office. Many progressives didn’t and voted third party, essentially throwing their vote away.

Do you really believe the average moderate Republican is going to vote for a progressive candidate who wants free healthcare and free education at the expense of their taxes going up? Republicans as a rule don’t care about anyone but themselves. Living in a red flyover state, I see it every day. Trust me, if most of my coworkers have to choose between Trump and Warren or Bernie, they’re gonna vote for DJT again. If it’s between Biden and DJT, Biden gets it.

Remember, MT voted for a big money bully who assaulted a reporter instead of a female progressive.

 

[DownIsTheNewUp]

There are MANY reasons it didn’t work out for HRC. She was a terrible candidate. Republicans hated her with a passion, as did many progressives, with good reason. Despite all those flaws, I still voted for her because I felt it was my duty as a voter to do what I could to keep DJT out of office. Many progressives didn’t and voted third party, essentially throwing their vote away.

Do you really believe the average moderate Republican is going to vote for a progressive candidate who wants free healthcare and free education at the expense of their taxes going up? Republicans as a rule don’t care about anyone but themselves. Living in a red flyover state, I see it every day. Trust me, if most of my coworkers have to choose between Trump and Warren or Bernie, they’re gonna vote for DJT again. If it’s between Biden and DJT, Biden gets it.

Remember, MT voted for a big money bully who assaulted a reporter instead of a female progressive.

Again, it wasnt just Clinton. Kerry lost against an unpopular president despite being the safe moderate. Walter Mondale got blown out.

In 08' Obama (hands down the most progressive option since Carter) won with a coalition of high youth turnout, high minority turnout and independents who were mad about Iraq. In 2012 it was literally the youth vote that won him the election by swinging numerous swing states.

Republicans are only 30-35 percent of the registered voting base and most of them are not moderate. Moderate Republicans don't matter just as they didnt with Obama. What matters is independents (who voted for Bernie is extremely high #'s during the primary and were the main reason Clinton lost), turning out non-voters, flipping some working class whites in rust belt areas, turning out people under 40 in high numbers and motivating people who typically don't typically vote due to apathy (which is what Trump did in 16 and is the reason polling was so off).

Pandering to moderate Republicans only worked for Bill Clinton. Then his presidency abandoned working people and unions while widening economic disparity. And that economic disparity (plus Fox News) have further polarized the bases.

For the record, Bernie polls very well against Trump in swing states. Better than anyone but Biden. And nearly every Dem polls ahead of Trump according to the most recent data.

I'd be curious for your thought on my article which is not about electability but is about why Biden is such a good awful option.

 

[DownIsTheNewUp]

While this may be the story for Dem voters in MT and some other places I don't think it's the case in many less red states.




HRC lost because she lost the narrative not because she wasn't an eminently capable candidate. She lost because enough people bought into various stories and/or people couldn't see the forest through the trees because they felt burnt that Bernie got screwed by the DNC / they were obsessed with her flaws / they didn't think Donny had a snowballs chance in hell.

The narrative that she was a terrible candidate is b.s. and the narrative that her ties to wall street / whatever conspiracy theory people believe allowed Trump to win the electoral college is also b.s.

The Dems don't need Republican votes to win. They need turnout and I think it's a mistake for that party to think that Trump voters will flip-flop. Some might not vote, but very few are going to change teams.

Having a candidate that is someone people will be excited about is more important than policy, party, or whether or not they're an illiterate racist. The average citizen will never really research anything and will vote for whatever team they already align themselves with or whomever is they can be most excited about.

The average citizen completely distrusts the government, particularly the federal government. Every one of them thinks they reached the decision to distrust government honestly, but they have been sold a narrative of distrust for several decades now and the propaganda campaign has worked...

What I'm saying is that people are much more optimistic about their decision making ability than they should be (there's plenty of economic research that points to this) and politics, particularly presidential candidates, are just part of the same poor decision making process of the average citizen.

Everything is a bell curve and in this case, regardless of party affiliation or team, the area under the curve is occupied mostly by people that are just going to vote for the person they like better (if they vote at all).

The right distrusts government. The left distrusts money in politics but not government itself. Which is why polling for government heavy programs and leftist economic policy are polling at an all-time yet a huge chunk of the (far left) base names money in politics as a top issue and badly want to be rid of people like Nancy Pelosi and Chucky boy. Unfortunately, the $$$ they take makes it really difficult to push them out.

Redirect Notice

www.google.com

As expected, I deeply disagree that policy had nothing to with why Clinton lost and/or that past votes or decisions of her husband didnt play a hand.

Iraq, NAFTA, gutting glass-stegall were all deeply unpopular and things I heard brought up on the regular while canvassing. And it was certainly of major concern to Bernie's base.

But I agree with much of what you are saying.

 

[DownIsTheNewUp]

That's a very simplified take on past democratic losses. Mondale lost because of cult of personality and the oil crisis narrative. Kerry loss because the republican narrative about his war time service and the Heinz family dollars, and the narrative that sticking with Bush for another term at a time of war was safer. Obama won because people were tired of the war and how America's image had been tarnished globally and he got out the youth and minority vote. Trump won because of the Clinton narrative and propaganda and a failure to excite the youth and minority vote. None of these people won or lost because of their moderate policies or lack thereof.

I didnt say it was the only reason. That doesnt change the fact that pushing the moderate has repeatedly failed us in the recent past.

And as one of those youth during 08, I promise you the reason the youth turnout was high and the activists engaged was because of how progressive he was compared to Clinton. It's the same reason more people under 35 voted for Bernie than Clinton or Trump combined.

 

[Sonicpharmacist]

Again, it wasnt just Clinton. Kerry lost against an unpopular president despite being the safe moderate. Walter Mondale got blown out.

In 08' Obama (hands down the most progressive option since Carter) won with a coalition of high youth turnout, high minority turnout and independents who were mad about Iraq. In 2012 it was literally the youth vote that won him the election by swinging numerous swing states.

Republicans are only 30-35 percent of the registered voting base and most of them are not moderate. Moderate Republicans don't matter just as they didnt with Obama. What matters is independents (who voted for Bernie is extremely high #'s during the primary and were the main reason Clinton lost), turning out non-voters, flipping some working class whites in rust belt areas, turning out people under 40 in high numbers and motivating people who typically don't typically vote due to apathy (which is what Trump did in 16 and is the reason polling was so off).

Pandering to moderate Republicans only worked for Bill Clinton. Then his presidency abandoned working people and unions while widening economic disparity. And that economic disparity (plus Fox News) have further polarized the bases.

For the record, Bernie polls very well against Trump in swing states. Better than anyone but Biden. And nearly every Dem polls ahead of Trump according to the most recent data.

I'd be curious for your thought on my article which is not about electability but is about why Biden is such a good awful option.

You make some excellent points. I completely agree that turnout is the key. And I did see that every Dem polled ahead of DJT.

Maybe things in MT are different than other states. We are a red state that overwhelmingly voted for Trump, yet we have a three term Democratic governor in Steve Bullock. And, despite all the negative attention he got, Jon Tester was re-elected.

I suppose my larger point is this: I will vote with my heart in the primaries, with my head in the general.

 

[DownIsTheNewUp]

Son, you have not spent enough time in the Midwest if you think that reds are the only people that distrust government.

Most of those policy "issues" you point out the average American doesn't know the story about. What they know is what they see on tv and facebook or hear on their Sinclair controlled radio outlet.

To you first point, that could be. I have spent extensive time in Minnesota and Wisconsin (where my dad is from) but not muchwhere else.

The second point I disagree (which is fine). Again, those policy issues (NAFTA especially) came up over and over when I was on the ground in rural NV (I know it's not the midwest but it's an area with a cowboy, libertarian streak) or calling states like Ohio, Missouri, Michigan or Iowa (I held repeated phone banking parties to those states. And we didn't have a registration list either).

Also, anyone who is watching Fox or getting their news from Sinclair is not a Dem at this point. And the people who watch CNN or MSNBC are Clinton's base and the people who show up and vote blindly for her.

I actually think one of the main reasons Millenials are so much more liberal is because most of us view sources like CNN and MSNBC are corporate trash.

Edit: I'd add that the fact that Bermie wasn't taking Super Pac money and was built around small donors (and the vice versa of that for Clinton) also regularly came up when I was phone banking. And that these were topics that Bernie built his campaign around (speeches, debates, what his many volunteers were passionate about) so the campaign itself was bringing a ton of attention to them and making people aware.

 

[Sonicpharmacist]

Also, anyone who is watching Fox or getting their news from Sinclair is not a Dem at this point. And the people who watch CNN or MSNBC are Clinton's base and the people who show up and vote blindly for her.

I watch MSNBC. I think Chuck Todd is a hack, and I despise Chris Matthews. Other than them, I think MSNBC is alright. Yeah, I voted for HRC in 2016 (and I’d do it again to save us from the Republican party), but I did not “blindly” vote for her, and I most certainly am not part of her base.

 

[Indymisanthrope]

Not sure if this has made much national news, but the congresswoman whose district I’m gerrymandered into, Susan Brooks, announced this week that she won’t be seeking re-election, which was a likely guarantee for her in 2020. In a letter to her supporters, she assured them that this was NOT a political decision.

Here’s the thing: she is the NRCC’s recruitment chair for 2020. What are the optics for recruits when the recruitment chair isn’t seeking certain reelection in a wealthy suburb in Indiana?

It might not be a political decision, but it’s hard not to want to read it as a sign that some Republicans are starting to fear a rout in 2020.

 

[Sonicpharmacist]

Everyone (mostly) is very liberal when they're younger.

I was a staunch pro-Life Republican in my early 20’s. The first Dem I ever voted for was Obama. I realize I AM the exception.

 

[DownIsTheNewUp]

Everyone (mostly) is very liberal when they're younger.

I would just say that the same people that will say their about policy in a face to face discussion, probably don't do much policy research or exploration and their narrative or belief about policies like NAFTA come from the predominant message that's going on around them. Suburban blues in WI and MN still watch fox news and in some places, because of the money in tv station ownership, the fox stations actually have more liberal mesaging than the local NBC affiliates (that's opinion of course).

Most people are too busy, too overworked, too stressed, too whatever to actually pay close attention to anything other than messaging. The Midwest, particularly states like MI, OH, and non-Philadlephia PA are held-up as blue union strongholds, except that less than 15% of people in those state are unionized and the police unions have all been controlled by the liberal racist narrative. Minorities don't trust government - obviously. Government union folks don't trust government because of the adversarial nature of their relationship and suburban liberals are often wealthy and fiscally conservative which is why they might vote blue nationally but for red state and fed reps.

I hope your side can pull it out in 2020, but without more personality and understanding more about what people in the Midwest want it's going to be hard to get out the vote again.

All fair. And I appreciate the sentiment.

I'd just add that, yes, people tend to be more liberal when they are younger. The difference is that millenials have only grown more liberal with time because of the great recession, modern realities (rampant student debt, making 20 percent less than Boomer did at the same age despite being more educated and life being way more expensive, lack of benefits, 60 hour work weeks being the average, climate change and the threat of exinction) and just being far more accepting on the whole of minority groups. The flow of money that turned Boomers to the fiscal right has shut off.

In fact, data actually shows that Gen Z and Millenials are being pushed leftward by the Trump era.

Right now, I think Biden becomes the nominee for two reasons. 1) He is gonna mop of the south and it's heavily older, blacker community 2) Bernie and Warren are gonna split the progressive vote.

But that doesn't mean I ain't gonna fight it and then sob afterwards when it happens. Biden = extinction imo.

 

[Sonicpharmacist]

Interesting. Here in the Twin Cities the wealthy Republican suburbs are less conservative than there I imagine . Here they want to protect their land and their tax dollars but they really don't want to see themselves as racially or socially insensitive - so women really turned out to vote against what had went down during the first two years of Trump in the midterms... I'm less sure they will vote blue again if we're in a war with Iran or the market is booming and benefiting their investments.

My dad is a self-admitted Constitutional Conservative. He believes in “God, guns, and glory” (not convinced about the God part though). He moved from San Diego to Minneapolis, and it just makes me chuckle that the most conservative person I know lives in Minneapolis. Well, Eden Prairie to be specific.

 

[DownIsTheNewUp]

I watch MSNBC. I think Chuck Todd is a hack, and I despise Chris Matthews. Other than them, I think MSNBC is alright. Yeah, I voted for HRC in 2016 (and I’d do it again to save us from the Republican party), but I did not “blindly” vote for her, and I most certainly am not part of her base.

Touche'. I literally don't know anyone who watches either unless it's on at the gym... in large part cause everyone has cut the chord on their cable.

MSNBC covered Biden's campaign more than all other campaigns combined last time someone in the media checked the data. Maddow has spent the past 3 years yapping about Russia and pushing blame away from the DNC while ignoring many of Trump's dangerous policy decisions (because her overlords don't really care). I like Chris Haynes though

Personally, I rely on Democracy Now, The Guardian, The Intercept AMD a touch of NPR and WaPo. But I'd say most of my less political friends are more on the NPR/BBC train while for the many activists I know it's shit like Common Dreams and the Intercept. Certainly don't think that's the norm though

 

[Sonicpharmacist]

That doesn't surprise me at all. The millenial political philosophy is a very small bubble here...and there's a lot conservative white folk in the city. They know they can't get too loud or they'll get shouted down but they're here in full force. There's some intersting things going on locally with some wealthy conservatives in MN trying to fight the renaming of the lakes from racist white guys to the aboriginal names.

I should ask him about the lakes thing. Truth be told, I have no idea how my dad feels about DJT. He hated him in the primaries, but you bet your ass he voted for him over Clinton. I want to ask.....but I don’t too.

 

[Sonicpharmacist]

Lol - Don't ask! Sometimes it's best not to know.

I’d have to be supremely drunk to ask.

 

[DownIsTheNewUp]

I should ask him about the lakes thing. Truth be told, I have no idea how my dad feels about DJT. He hated him in the primaries, but you bet your ass he voted for him over Clinton. I want to ask.....but I don’t too.

Family + Trump is a delicate balance. My 1st cousin who is twenty years older became conservative because A) he married a Pakastani Christian who fled to the US to avoid persecution from Muslims B) after he had kids, his mom moved to Coloardo with her husband who happens to be John McCain's best friend from his time as a POW. The combined influences got him watching Fox News which pushed him off the cliff.

I tried the conversation once in regards to Trump and he gave me the economy's good answer. I didnt really respond but then sent him some articles about how the only portion of the economy that is doing well is job rates (even if their shit jobs) and people who are wealthy enough to own stocks.

He never responded. Presumably because he has stocks. Meanwhile, my brother and his wife are now on non-speaking terms because the last time they were together she went off on how Omar was a planted here by a Muslim nation in order to bring us down from the inside. Two days later the massacre in NZ happened and my brother decided he wanted nothing to do with her. It doesnt help that my brother is a climate scientist who has a low tolerance for evangelicals who want the world to end.

There will undoubtedly be upper middle class whites who vote Trump because their stocks have recovered. There will also be people like my roommate's dad. A rural Marylander who was GOP until Iraq and the recession and supported Bermie in the primary before voting Trump in the general (because he figured anything was better than Clinton and he was pissed at the DNC) and then immediately regretted it.

 

[Sonicpharmacist]

Family + Trump is a delicate balance. My 1st cousin who is twenty years older became conservative because A) he married a Pakastani Christian who fled to the US to avoid persecution from Muslims B) after he had kids, his mom moved to Coloardo with her husband who happens to be John McCain's best friend from his time as a POW. The combined influences got him watching Fox News which pushed him off the cliff.

I tried the conversation once in regards to Trump and he gave me the economy's good answer. I didnt really respond but then sent him some articles about how the only portion of the economy that is doing well is job rates (even if their shit jobs) and people who are wealthy enough to own stocks.

He never responded. Presumably because he has stocks. Meanwhile, my brother and his wife are now on non-speaking terms because the last time they were together she went off on how Omar was a planted here by a Muslim nation in order to bring us down from the inside. Two days later the massacre in NZ happened and my brother decided he wanted nothing to do with her. It doesnt help that my brother is a climate scientist who has a low tolerance for evangelicals who want the world to end.

There will undoubtedly be upper middle class whites who vote Trump because their stocks have recovered. There will also be people like my roommate's dad. A rural Marylander who was GOP until Iraq and the recession and supported Bermie in the primary before voting Trump in the general (because he figured anything was better than Clinton and he was pissed at the DNC) and then immediately regretted it.

My story isn’t quite as jaw dropping as yours. Like I said, my dad despised Trump in 2016, but voted for him anyways. I do not know his feeling about DJT now. My in-laws are die hard MAGAts. My father-in-law sends my wife horrible, bigoted, anti-Muslim emails and memes all the time. I used to get them too, but every once in a while I would respond. I no longer receive those emails.

 

[TrainFan73]

I agree. I also don't think that person exists due to 2 factors. A) the 2010 elections wiped out a lot of young leaders B) a lot of politicians were terrified of his policies or bought out in 2016.

Pete has a huge # of red flags buried in his rhetoric. Beto takes more money from fossil fuels than any other politician in the DNC. I live in CA and Harris fought reform at every step as a prosecutor and no activist I knows trusts her. Especially because her career was easy at every step and no clean politician makes it up the food chain in CA.

The best options imo are Warren and Bernie by a substantial margin. That doesn't mean I don't wish they were younger.

I mean I don’t like Harris, but a prosecutor’s job is to ensure the law is upheld by defeating people who break it. Whether it’s reformers, Petty theives or big corporations.

 

[RenegadeMonster]

Apparently the house passed a bill that requires candidates to report foreign meddling in elections to the FBI. Such as Russia reaching out and saying I have dirt on your opponent.

You would think it would be a non brainer that this bill would also pass the senate.

But nope. Mitch would not even allow the vote on the floor.

 

[Sonicpharmacist]

Apparently the house passed a bill that requires candidates to report foreign meddling in elections to the FBI. Such as Russia reaching out and saying I have dirt on your opponent.

You would think it would be a non brainer that this bill would also pass the senate.

But nope. Mitch would not even allow the vote on the floor.

Because the members of the GOP have collectively traded in their souls for an extra vote.

 

[DownIsTheNewUp]

I mean I don’t like Harris, but a prosecutor’s job is to ensure the law is upheld by defeating people who break it. Whether it’s reformers, Petty theives or big corporations.

She didn't always do that though.

Redirect Notice

www.google.com

Meanwhile, despite campaigning on reform, she forced voters to go to the polls in order to get rid of the three strikes felony rule.

Those are just 2 examples.