Political Discussion

Two part question? Who do you think will get the democratic nomination? Not who you want to win! And second who wins the Presidency?
 
Two part question? Who do you think will get the democratic nomination? Not who you want to win! And second who wins the Presidency?
I think current momentum points to the race being Warren’s to lose both in the primary and in the general. Her biggest hindrance right now is people starting to mock her refusal to speak about M4A in any terms other than overall costs (rather than taxes). Pretty clear after the last debate that her fellow candidates view her as the front runner based on how much time they’re spending attacking her instead of Biden now. If she can weather that for a few months and continue to draw off their supporters, I think she can take Biden when it comes to actual primary season. The Ukraine story, or rather his milquetoast response to it, will turn off a lot of “but her emails” voters.

I’m not sure Trump will even be in the general. Actually, serious question — if he by some miracle gets removed from office via the Senate...is there anything preventing him from continuing to run for another term?
 
Two part question? Who do you think will get the democratic nomination? Not who you want to win! And second who wins the Presidency?

Warren
Trump

I’m not sure Trump will even be in the general. Actually, serious question — if he by some miracle gets removed from office via the Senate...is there anything preventing him from continuing to run for another term?

I don't know. Impeachment isn't a felony. If he were charged and convicted of a federal crime then I think that prevents him from running, but impeachment itself doesn't. That seems like it should be wrong.

Other thoughts:
In the wake of whatever all of the current mess and distraction is I was thinking more about the particular mess/tragedy/massacre that is going on in Syria. I know this isn't an original thought, but pretty much everything that has happened during the current administration's reign of terror has been about securing the Russian oil economy / oligarchy.

Of course this story has been playing out for decades, but so much of the policy cluster-turd in the Middle East has seemingly been about propping-up various regimes at various times to secure Russian and U.S. fossil fuel interests. That's why there is no real interest in addressing the challenges there sustainably. De-stabilization = profits for some and death for others.

The economy driven by cold-war thinking /policies has refused to go quietly into the night.

It would be kind-of funny if the inability to be even moderately subtle about these geo-political, money-grab, mobster maneuvers was the thing that generated enough healthy-distrust for Americans to start thinking criticaly about their homeland's role in making many many people's lives worse throughout the world. Maybe all it took was just the right amount of cocksure bloviation????
 
Sadly, I think this is correct.

I WANT Warren. We'll get Biden. Which means, unless he's removed before then, Trump will get another 4 years to further destroy this country.
It’s possible. But I look to two points:
1. Warren’s recent rise isn’t coming at Biden’s expense, but at the expense of other candidates. That suggests that Biden has a fairly committed base, but that he’s also not the first OR second choice of an even bigger segment of voters.
2. Biden’s current strategy depends on a strong showing in South Carolina. It’s a calculated risk, but still a risk to be willing to take some licks in Iowa and NH and potentially let a losing narrative develop.

Between those, his weak showings in debates, and the Ukraine smears, I think he’s got a real race on his hands.
 
I don't know. Impeachment isn't a felony. If he were charged and convicted of a federal crime then I think that prevents him from running, but impeachment itself doesn't. That seems like it should be wrong.
All the states that have canceled the Republican primary for next year are gonna feel prett-ay, prett-ay silly if that scenario comes to pass.
 
It’s possible. But I look to two points:
1. Warren’s recent rise isn’t coming at Biden’s expense, but at the expense of other candidates. That suggests that Biden has a fairly committed base, but that he’s also not the first OR second choice of an even bigger segment of voters.
2. Biden’s current strategy depends on a strong showing in South Carolina. It’s a calculated risk, but still a risk to be willing to take some licks in Iowa and NH and potentially let a losing narrative develop.

Between those, his weak showings in debates, and the Ukraine smears, I think he’s got a real race on his hands.

It seems ridiculous to say but I suspect there are enough Americans that just won't vote for a woman, or will allow whatever narrative about personality that is really misoginistic code for women are icky and untrustworthy, that hands it to Trump or whomever
 
Is Trump really going to get the independents that got him elected in 2016? At this point I'd take any of them except Biden. I don't have any real problem with Biden but debunked Ukraine theories will be the "bit her emails" of 2020.

It wasn't registered independents that elected Trump. It was newly registered and non-traditional Republican voters and a defection of blue working-class moderates.

Creepy grandpa Joe would do more damage to the progressive movement than he's worth imo.
 
It seems ridiculous to say but I suspect there are enough Americans that just won't vote for a woman, or will allow whatever narrative about personality that is really misoginistic code for women are icky and untrustworthy, that hands it to Trump or whomever
It’s probably not ridiculous at all, but I’m electing to stay in denial about that part for now.
 
Heard on the local morning news this morning that Massachusetts has some of the highest child care costs on the country.

In Boston, a survey found that 3/4 of parents stated that childcare is to expensive. 47% responded that they can't afford childcare or can afford childcare but can't find available childcare.

This is leading to Women once again becoming stay at home mothers, a reverse in the trends over the last 50 years.

Parents are finding it's cheaper for the mother to give up her salary and be a stay at home mother than it is for the mother to continue to work and the family had to pay for childcare. The survey also found that the mothers would rather work than be stay at home mothers, but are forced too because they can't afford childcare.
 
Parents are finding it's cheaper for the mother to give up her salary and be a stay at home mother than it is for the mother to continue to work and the family had to pay for childcare. The survey also found that the mothers would rather work than be stay at home mothers, but are forced too because they can't afford childcare.

I can understand this...when someone only works to earn money that only goes for child care, what's the point of working?

I don't like it though.
 
Heard on the local morning news this morning that Massachusetts has some of the highest child care costs on the country.

In Boston, a survey found that 3/4 of parents stated that childcare is to expensive. 47% responded that they can't afford childcare or can afford childcare but can't find available childcare.

This is leading to Women once again becoming stay at home mothers, a reverse in the trends over the last 50 years.

Parents are finding it's cheaper for the mother to give up her salary and be a stay at home mother than it is for the mother to continue to work and the family had to pay for childcare. The survey also found that the mothers would rather work than be stay at home mothers, but are forced too because they can't afford childcare.

This narrative is the case pretty much everywhere. Time is perhaps the greatest privilege of the ruling class.

The resulting inequity of primarily "women" making the choice to stay home is also troubling.

Edit:
I'm not so sure it's necessarily a bad thing that one parent works and one is at home. I do think it's a bad thing if the result is a 1950's society and that the person raising a child can't re-enter the workforce at the same level as when they left or that they have to sacrifice wealth and security to do so
 
On paper there should be so many Trump defectors he shouldn't stand a chance. But we'll find a way to fuck it up.


I feel exactly this way. I feel the democrats will find someone to blow it and Trump will win re-election. I don't think he is going to be removed from office.It would take a miracle in the Senate in my opinon for this to happen.
 
It’s possible. But I look to two points:
1. Warren’s recent rise isn’t coming at Biden’s expense, but at the expense of other candidates. That suggests that Biden has a fairly committed base, but that he’s also not the first OR second choice of an even bigger segment of voters.
2. Biden’s current strategy depends on a strong showing in South Carolina. It’s a calculated risk, but still a risk to be willing to take some licks in Iowa and NH and potentially let a losing narrative develop.

Between those, his weak showings in debates, and the Ukraine smears, I think he’s got a real race on his hands.


At this point I think the candidate that has the least amount of baggage is Mayor Pete and if he weren't gay, he might have a real chance.
 
I feel exactly this way. I feel the democrats will find someone to blow it and Trump will win re-election. I don't think he is going to be removed from office.It would take a miracle in the Senate in my opinon for this to happen.
The only way woukd be if the evidence and charged was so overwhelming that they have no choice. But maybe not even then.
 
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