Neverending Covid-19 Coronavirus

[Turbo]

Interesting to see the US perspective of our Canadian response to COVID-19.

It's wasn't all rosy as ~8,500 died, mostly in my province and mostly in long term care facilities. But it's true that we did a good job coming together, keeping politics out of it and by and large following the science. I think we did a pretty good job with counting cases and fatalities as well, based on excess mortality data.

We'll see where we go from here. Will people do what's necessary to mitigate another wave? Maybe it's inevitable, but I do believe we can alleviate it with good behavior. Though we do have our lot of belligerents as the current (still trickle of) cases have skewed towards a much younger average age.

See how Canada crushed the curve while the US struggles | CNN

CNN's Paula Newton explains what measures Canadians are taking to flatten the curve as countries continue to battle the coronavirus pandemic.

www.cnn.com

 

[RenegadeMonster]

Yikes

 

[bother]

Interesting to see the US perspective of our Canadian response to COVID-19.

It's wasn't all rosy as ~8,500 died, mostly in my province and mostly in long term care facilities. But it's true that we did a good job coming together, keeping politics out of it and by and large following the science. I think we did a pretty good job with counting cases and fatalities as well, based on excess mortality data.

We'll see where we go from here. Will people do what's necessary to mitigate another wave? Maybe it's inevitable, but I do believe we can alleviate it with good behavior. Though we do have our lot of belligerents as the current (still trickle of) cases have skewed towards a much younger average age.

See how Canada crushed the curve while the US struggles | CNN

CNN's Paula Newton explains what measures Canadians are taking to flatten the curve as countries continue to battle the coronavirus pandemic.

www.cnn.com

I want to see more reporting like that. What's the difference between America and other countries? What exactly are we doing wrong that others are doing right? We have better testing capacity, our hospital systems are in better shape than they were a few months ago. Is it really so simple as, Americans are too selfish to do the right thing? We really can't give up packing into bars, and refuse to wear masks?

 

[nolalady]

I want to see more reporting like that. What's the difference between America and other countries? What exactly are we doing wrong that others are doing right? We have better testing capacity, our hospital systems are in better shape than they were a few months ago. Is it really so simple as, Americans are too selfish to do the right thing? We really can't give up packing into bars, and refuse to wear masks?

This is a pretty good article on it.



America started off testing people for the coronavirus at a slower rate than most other developed countries, but the number of people diagnosed with Covid-19 in the US has risen more quickly than the country’s peers abroad. We don’t yet know the full extent of the outbreak, but America remains a focal point of the coronavirus pandemic.

The US health system was less prepared for a pandemic than those of other wealthy nations. A high uninsured rate, high out-of-pocket health care costs, and low medical system capacity together make the country more vulnerable to a pathogen before the coronavirus ever came to our shores. America’s lax response in the early days of the outbreak only compounded those structural problems.

How the US stacks up to other countries in confirmed coronavirus cases

The United States has about a third of the world’s coronavirus cases.

www.vox.com

And because I'm a stats nerd, here's some math too:


At least three factors enable meaningful comparisons of these nations with the United States. First, we scaled up their population sizes and Covid-19 deaths to match those of the U.S. Second, in each of these countries, roughly 80% or more of the population lives in urbanized, transmission-prone areas, similar to the U.S. Third, the pandemic took root earlier in these other countries than here, as measured by the date of the 15th confirmed case in each, meaning that foreign leaders had to act with less information to guide their decisions than did U.S. leaders.

To compare each country’s responses to the pandemic on a consistent basis, we turned to the work of an Oxford University team that has constructed a stringency index based on 13 policy responses (lockdowns, border closings, tests, etc.) to measure how strongly each country responded over time. The Oxford index shows that 14 days from the date of the 15th confirmed case in each country — a vital early window for action — the U.S. response to the outbreak lagged behind the others by miles. The U.S. stringency score of 5.7 at that point was 25% of Australia’s (23), 23% of Germany’s (25), 18% of Singapore’s (32), and only 15% of South Korea’s (38).

Due to exponential viral spread, our delay in action was devastating. In the wake of the U.S. response, 117,858 Americans died in the four months following the first 15 confirmed cases. After an equivalent period, Germany suffered only 8,863 casualties. Scaling up the German population of 83.7 million to America’s 331 million, a U.S.-sized Germany would have suffered 35,049 Covid-19 deaths. So if the U.S. had acted as effectively as Germany, 70% of U.S. coronavirus deaths might have been prevented.

Seventy percent, though, is the most conservative estimate. Scaled-up versions of South Korea, Australia, and Singapore would have experienced 1,758, 1,324, and 1,358 deaths, respectively, in the four months after 15 cases were confirmed in each country. Had we handled the coronavirus as effectively as any of these three countries, roughly 99% of the 117,858 U.S. Covid-19 deaths might have been averted.

Our conclusions are strengthened by their consistency with the results from different methodologies. Two notable epidemiological projections, based on theoretical models of transmission and “idealized hypothetical assumptions,” have estimated that between 80% and 90% of American deaths could have been averted had lockdowns and social distancing begun two weeks earlier.

How many needless Covid-19 deaths were caused by delays in responding? Most of them

Some countries with the same information as the U.S. had at the start of the pandemic took earlier, decisive steps to quell the spread of SARS-CoV-2, leading to proportionally fewer deaths than the U.S.

www.statnews.com

This is what I've been saying for months. Had we had stronger federal guidelines that acted quickly and decisively, we would have seen only 10-30% of the deaths we saw here. Had we had more compliance for mask wearing and social distancing and had shut down things faster, we could have numbers similar to the rest of the world. We didn't do that.

 

[Tyr]

This is a pretty good article on it.



America started off testing people for the coronavirus at a slower rate than most other developed countries, but the number of people diagnosed with Covid-19 in the US has risen more quickly than the country’s peers abroad. We don’t yet know the full extent of the outbreak, but America remains a focal point of the coronavirus pandemic.

The US health system was less prepared for a pandemic than those of other wealthy nations. A high uninsured rate, high out-of-pocket health care costs, and low medical system capacity together make the country more vulnerable to a pathogen before the coronavirus ever came to our shores. America’s lax response in the early days of the outbreak only compounded those structural problems.

How the US stacks up to other countries in confirmed coronavirus cases

The United States has about a third of the world’s coronavirus cases.

www.vox.com

And because I'm a stats nerd, here's some math too:


At least three factors enable meaningful comparisons of these nations with the United States. First, we scaled up their population sizes and Covid-19 deaths to match those of the U.S. Second, in each of these countries, roughly 80% or more of the population lives in urbanized, transmission-prone areas, similar to the U.S. Third, the pandemic took root earlier in these other countries than here, as measured by the date of the 15th confirmed case in each, meaning that foreign leaders had to act with less information to guide their decisions than did U.S. leaders.

To compare each country’s responses to the pandemic on a consistent basis, we turned to the work of an Oxford University team that has constructed a stringency index based on 13 policy responses (lockdowns, border closings, tests, etc.) to measure how strongly each country responded over time. The Oxford index shows that 14 days from the date of the 15th confirmed case in each country — a vital early window for action — the U.S. response to the outbreak lagged behind the others by miles. The U.S. stringency score of 5.7 at that point was 25% of Australia’s (23), 23% of Germany’s (25), 18% of Singapore’s (32), and only 15% of South Korea’s (38).

Due to exponential viral spread, our delay in action was devastating. In the wake of the U.S. response, 117,858 Americans died in the four months following the first 15 confirmed cases. After an equivalent period, Germany suffered only 8,863 casualties. Scaling up the German population of 83.7 million to America’s 331 million, a U.S.-sized Germany would have suffered 35,049 Covid-19 deaths. So if the U.S. had acted as effectively as Germany, 70% of U.S. coronavirus deaths might have been prevented.

Seventy percent, though, is the most conservative estimate. Scaled-up versions of South Korea, Australia, and Singapore would have experienced 1,758, 1,324, and 1,358 deaths, respectively, in the four months after 15 cases were confirmed in each country. Had we handled the coronavirus as effectively as any of these three countries, roughly 99% of the 117,858 U.S. Covid-19 deaths might have been averted.

Our conclusions are strengthened by their consistency with the results from different methodologies. Two notable epidemiological projections, based on theoretical models of transmission and “idealized hypothetical assumptions,” have estimated that between 80% and 90% of American deaths could have been averted had lockdowns and social distancing begun two weeks earlier.

How many needless Covid-19 deaths were caused by delays in responding? Most of them

Some countries with the same information as the U.S. had at the start of the pandemic took earlier, decisive steps to quell the spread of SARS-CoV-2, leading to proportionally fewer deaths than the U.S.

www.statnews.com

This is what I've been saying for months. Had we had stronger federal guidelines that acted quickly and decisively, we would have seen only 10-30% of the deaths we saw here. Had we had more compliance for mask wearing and social distancing and had shut down things faster, we could have numbers similar to the rest of the world. We didn't do that.

And this ^, right here, is why structured data and analysis is vitally important to all countries, industries, and businesses. Thank you Lady Sparkles!

 

[bother]

This is a pretty good article on it.



America started off testing people for the coronavirus at a slower rate than most other developed countries, but the number of people diagnosed with Covid-19 in the US has risen more quickly than the country’s peers abroad. We don’t yet know the full extent of the outbreak, but America remains a focal point of the coronavirus pandemic.

The US health system was less prepared for a pandemic than those of other wealthy nations. A high uninsured rate, high out-of-pocket health care costs, and low medical system capacity together make the country more vulnerable to a pathogen before the coronavirus ever came to our shores. America’s lax response in the early days of the outbreak only compounded those structural problems.

How the US stacks up to other countries in confirmed coronavirus cases

The United States has about a third of the world’s coronavirus cases.

www.vox.com

And because I'm a stats nerd, here's some math too:


At least three factors enable meaningful comparisons of these nations with the United States. First, we scaled up their population sizes and Covid-19 deaths to match those of the U.S. Second, in each of these countries, roughly 80% or more of the population lives in urbanized, transmission-prone areas, similar to the U.S. Third, the pandemic took root earlier in these other countries than here, as measured by the date of the 15th confirmed case in each, meaning that foreign leaders had to act with less information to guide their decisions than did U.S. leaders.

To compare each country’s responses to the pandemic on a consistent basis, we turned to the work of an Oxford University team that has constructed a stringency index based on 13 policy responses (lockdowns, border closings, tests, etc.) to measure how strongly each country responded over time. The Oxford index shows that 14 days from the date of the 15th confirmed case in each country — a vital early window for action — the U.S. response to the outbreak lagged behind the others by miles. The U.S. stringency score of 5.7 at that point was 25% of Australia’s (23), 23% of Germany’s (25), 18% of Singapore’s (32), and only 15% of South Korea’s (38).

Due to exponential viral spread, our delay in action was devastating. In the wake of the U.S. response, 117,858 Americans died in the four months following the first 15 confirmed cases. After an equivalent period, Germany suffered only 8,863 casualties. Scaling up the German population of 83.7 million to America’s 331 million, a U.S.-sized Germany would have suffered 35,049 Covid-19 deaths. So if the U.S. had acted as effectively as Germany, 70% of U.S. coronavirus deaths might have been prevented.

Seventy percent, though, is the most conservative estimate. Scaled-up versions of South Korea, Australia, and Singapore would have experienced 1,758, 1,324, and 1,358 deaths, respectively, in the four months after 15 cases were confirmed in each country. Had we handled the coronavirus as effectively as any of these three countries, roughly 99% of the 117,858 U.S. Covid-19 deaths might have been averted.

Our conclusions are strengthened by their consistency with the results from different methodologies. Two notable epidemiological projections, based on theoretical models of transmission and “idealized hypothetical assumptions,” have estimated that between 80% and 90% of American deaths could have been averted had lockdowns and social distancing begun two weeks earlier.

How many needless Covid-19 deaths were caused by delays in responding? Most of them

Some countries with the same information as the U.S. had at the start of the pandemic took earlier, decisive steps to quell the spread of SARS-CoV-2, leading to proportionally fewer deaths than the U.S.

www.statnews.com

This is what I've been saying for months. Had we had stronger federal guidelines that acted quickly and decisively, we would have seen only 10-30% of the deaths we saw here. Had we had more compliance for mask wearing and social distancing and had shut down things faster, we could have numbers similar to the rest of the world. We didn't do that.

Thanks for this response, it's horrifying and not surprising at all. Basically we started too late, didn't impose a unified response, and now we are trying to reopen too soon. It seems like because we lost those crucial weeks, our lockdowns should have been longer and more robust than other countries. Our curve was never flattened and the virus is still very much out of control.

 

[bettim84]

that's the 5% though. It will not be 40% of the population with that mindset. No chance.

I’d put the over/under at 30%

 

[Turbo]

So largest single day increase in cases yesterday, fueled by the southern US and Brazil, with India in there too. Surges in Russia and South Africa as well.

 

[Turbo]

Two Americans charged with quarantine violation in Ontario, face $1K fine

Police say the man and woman from Minnesota were observed making stops in Fort Frances, Ont., after entering Canada despite being told to drive directly to their destination and quarantine for 14 days.

www.thestar.com

Not cool thinking you can side-step the quarantine laws that even all Canadians returning from abroad have to follow.

$1000 and deportation is a small slap on the wrist. Though I doubt they would be allowed re-entry any time soon.

 

[ranbalam]

Yikes

Am I the only human that doesn't mind toothpaste and orange juice? I have both almost every morning, I am beyond just used to it, I kind of like it.

 

[RenegadeMonster]

 

[Melt Face Molly Drop]

Am I the only human that doesn't mind toothpaste and orange juice? I have both almost every morning, I am beyond just used to it, I kind of like it.

 

[Tillman]

what the fuck is this jackass talking about?! his horrific wording almost makes it sound like the testing is giving people COVID. that said, I understand what he's trying to get at but still what the fuck is this jackass talking about?! testing only helps us document the number of cases, if you don't test 40,000,000 people your still have 50k+ new cases daily, you just wouldn't know about them.

and his follow up tweet regarding the "all important mortality rate", I'm fucking tired of the mortality rate being the be all end all regarding COVID. how about number of patients in the ICU who haven't died? is the fact that hospitals in several states are reaching capacity in their intensive care units not a concern? even if these people don't die it's impacting non-COVID related patients in need of the ICU, as well as causing a tremendous strain on hospital staff needed to treat the staggering number of daily new cases. but non of that even crosses this dumbfuck's mind because he wants everyone to believe that he's had this under control since the beginning.

 

[RenegadeMonster]

My father just forwarded me this tweet by a Fox News Channel political analyst.

Basically they are using this to state that we have committed economic suicide for the flu. COVID-19 was a hoax, and is no worse than the flu.

Though 0.6% is still higher than the flu and is comparable to the 1918 Spanish flu. Even if there is any truth to that number, it's still much worse than your every year flu. We have not seen a flu with a death rate that high since 1918.

 

[Tillman]

My father just forwarded me this tweet by a Fox News Channel political analyst.

Basically they are using this to state that we have committed economic suicide for the flu. COVID-19 was a hoax, and is no worse than the flu.

Though 0.6% is still higher than the flu and is comparable to the 1918 Spanish flu. Even if there is any truth to that number, it's still much worse than your every year flu. We have not seen a flu with a death rate that high since 1918.

also the flu isn't a novel virus, the medical community has a far better understanding of the flu so it's disingenuous to compare. in hindsight maybe it will turn out that too much was sacrificed in the response to COVID, but there is no way to know that now and especially a few months back when initiatives started going into place. also, some people act like having far greater spread by not enforcing lockdowns and distancing wouldn't have a negative impact on the economy as well. it's not like if certain businesses weren't shut down everything would be hunky dory with the economy right now.

 

[RenegadeMonster]

I also think the death rate we are seeing is because we did shut down as did many other countries. I'm willing to bet if we let it spread naturally and we ran out of ICU beds the death rate would be much higher. A lot of the initial death rates from places like Italy were potentially as high as 6%. Why? They ran out of ICU beds and the virus also spread freely to the vulnerable.

Because we (well, most of the world better than us), slowed the spread I think the death rate is much lower than what it could have been. We will never truly know how high it could have been at worse case scenario. Also remember, the Spanish flu did not have the same kind of shut downs or ICU care we have now. So COVID-19 being at least as bad still as the Spanish flu says something.

 

[RenegadeMonster]

Florida teen dies after conspiracy theorist mom takes her to church event and tries to treat her with Trump-approved drug: report

A Florida mother allegedly took her high-risk teenage daughter to a youth group event at their church, tried treating the girl at home with unproven drugs when she got sick -- and then hailed her as a patriot after she died.Carsyn Davis died June 23, two days after her 17th birthday, after she...

www.rawstory.com

 

[Jan]

My father just forwarded me this tweet by a Fox News Channel political analyst.

Basically they are using this to state that we have committed economic suicide for the flu. COVID-19 was a hoax, and is no worse than the flu.

Though 0.6% is still higher than the flu and is comparable to the 1918 Spanish flu. Even if there is any truth to that number, it's still much worse than your every year flu. We have not seen a flu with a death rate that high since 1918.

The ifr for a median flu is estimated at 0.1%, so one could also read this as corona is 6 times as deadly as the flu. Plus it seems to be much more infectious and faster spreading. Thwt is important because the number of infections times the fatality rate gives you the total number of fatalities.
It's interesting to look at excess mortality rates for different countries, so how many more people dued this year than expected from statistics. Those data seem to suggest higher excess mortalities than in the last flu seasons

Excess mortality during the Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19)

Excess mortality is a term used in epidemiology and public health that refers to the number of deaths from all causes during a crisis above and beyond what we would have expected to see under ‘normal’ conditions.1 In this case, we’re interested in how the number of deaths during the COVID-19...

ourworldindata.org

 

[Goatfish]

Let me preface this by saying none of the below is intended to downplay a global pandemic that has killed so many. I've had extended family members that have been in one way or another affected and I have several people close to me working on the front lines as doctors and nurses. Anecdotally, they relay the worst cases they've seen. I've been scouring the internet over the past 2 weeks due to a lot of anxiety around this thing. I've been searching for silver linings, and it's honestly helped ME and my family a lot to have some hope and see light at the end of the tunnel. I do not intend to offend anyone here or downplay any anecdotal instances of those having a hard time with this disease. I still wear my mask, am mindful about distancing, wash my hands with abandon, and have been working hard to get lots of sunshine (Vitamin D), rest, exercise, and make sure my nutrition is on point to TRY and keep my immune system in good shape.

That being said, I'm shocked more of the below has not been reported more widely, and it appears WE MAY HAVE sacrificed a lot more than needed to. Hindsight is 20/20 and I don't think it's appropriate to say could've or should've at this point, but I think it would be a shame if we didn't adjust going forward.:

1. CDC has IFR (NOT case fatality ratio since CDC estimates ~35%+/- are asymptomatic, leading to FAR more prevalence than has been picked up by testing which was woefully inadequate at the start of this thing) estimated at ~0.26-0.4%. For individuals under the age of 50, the CDC's best estimate puts odds of survival at 99.95%.

CDC Estimates

1a. Caveat - WE DON'T KNOW ABOUT LINGERING EFFECTS. Anecdotes abound about long term organ damage, etc. but again there is severely lacking data on this.

2. Average age of death is older than average life expectancy. Deaths are HEAVILY weighted towards the elderly and infirmed. Average number of comorbidities in deceased is 2.5, and only 7% of all deaths across all ages had 0 comorbidities assigned (deaths from COVID-19 ONLY). Many of the total deaths are in nursing homes and long term care facilities - a staggering ~45+ of all the deaths (and constituting only about 0.6% of the country's population).

2b. Caveat - I'm not trying to downplay the tragedy of the old and sick dying. It's atrocious what's happened and it's atrocious our leaders weren't better prepared and failed to react more quickly. In fact, I think this information is vital so we are THAT MUCH MORE MINDFUL about how we as individuals and a society protect those around us who are over 65 years old and/or have health issues/are immunocompromised that much more safe.

3. Death rate continues to be going down/staying flat, even ~3.5 weeks after cases have started to re-surge. As of June 28th, CDC excess deaths show we are back to "normal" in terms of comparing to prior years for the week for the first time since March. Hospitalizations and ICU admittance are pretty flat outside of the few hot zones (that were spared during the first part of this pandemic). Deaths certainly lag, but from the charts they didn't lag by more than 2 or so weeks at the beginning. Maybe as cases continue to surge we will see rising deaths, but maybe not.

4. Promising research showing T cell cross immunity. This is speculative, but there is promising research that exposure to other coronaviruses have protected some from the worst effects of this virus. If true, could help explain large # of speculated asymptomatic cases and why some even high risk population members have mild cases, and even could indicate the "novel" designation of this virus could be somewhat overblown.

Good News on the Human Immune Response to the Coronavirus

My intention with putting this together is to facilitate discussion and maybe help ease the anxiety of others who were struggling with the barrage of negative news like I was. I've discussed some of the above with people in my family and it helped put their minds at ease, but I've also gotten some backlash from people which I don't understand and again is not my intention whatsoever.

 

[Turbo]

also the flu isn't a novel virus, the medical community has a far better understanding of the flu so it's disingenuous to compare. in hindsight maybe it will turn out that too much was sacrificed in the response to COVID, but there is no way to know that now and especially a few months back when initiatives started going into place. also, some people act like having far greater spread by not enforcing lockdowns and distancing wouldn't have a negative impact on the economy as well. it's not like if certain businesses weren't shut down everything would be hunky dory with the economy right now.

Plus at least 150,000 are dead in your country alone, right now. This is not over yet and this is likely an undercount.

If this was just like the flu, then there would be freezer morgue trucks parked in the streets to collect the bodies every single year.

As you say, we understand the flu and know how to make vaccines against it. Swine Flu 2009 could have been very bad if we didn’t have that knowledge before hand.